The crushing defeat of Kamala Harris highlighted significant declines within the American left electorate and a failure to convince on inflation.
A mixture of anger, grief, reflection and the search for culprits. Here is how Democratic aides, elected officials and strategists described to NBC the atmosphere within their party on Wednesday, November 6, the day after the electoral rout. Vice-President Kamala Harris only received 72.4 million votes and 226 electoral votes, compared to more than 75.5 million votes and 312 electoral votes for her Republican and populist rival, Donald Trump.
“I am devastated and worried”, summarizes the Texan elected official Veronica Escobar, one of the faces of the campaign, to the New York Times. A work of introspection is therefore beginning in the party. “Rather than saying 'how can people vote for Donald Trump?', let's ask why people vote for Donald Trump.”suggests New York elected official Tom Suozzi to Axios. “What did he do right and what did we do wrong?” Donald Trump, whose campaign was certainly marked by numerous lies and verbal violence, notably succeeded in convincing people about inflation and immigration, two major concerns of voters.
Two days after the election, the New York Times asked Nancy Pelosi, former Democratic Speaker of the House of Representatives, at length about the possible causes of the debacle. In this interview, the Californian elected official hits the mark several times, before pointing out a strategic error by Joe Biden: “If the president had withdrawn from the race earlierthere might have been other candidates. Kamala would have won in my opinion [parmi les autres candidats]but perhaps she would have been stronger, she would have presented herself to the public sooner.”
The independent senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, former candidate in the Democratic primaries, for his part takes a harsh look at the party. “The American people are angry and want change. And they are right”he believes.
“It should come as no surprise that a Democratic Party that has abandoned the working class finds that the working class has abandoned it.”
Bernie Sanders, senator from Vermontin a press release
An observation supported on the social network X by Senator Chris Murphy. “It’s time to rebuild the left”defends this elected official from Connecticut. This one “never fully addressed the damage caused by fifty years of neoliberalism, which left legions of Americans adrift”. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, elected from a rural constituency in Washington state, criticizes New York Times Democrats who “do not respect people who work for a living”.
These internal criticisms highlight a reality: on November 5, the Democrats lost valuable votes among the working classes, working professions and more generally, among less educated Americans. Counties with high agricultural, mining or industrial activity are three to five points more Republican than in 2020, reports the New York Times. About 56% of voters without a college degree supported Donald Trump, compared to 51% four years earlier, according to Associated Press studies.
Ethnic minorities, essential electorates for Democrats, in turn lean to the right. This year, 43% of Hispanic voters voted for Donald Trump, like 16% of African-Americans. Four years ago, only 35% of Latinos and 8% of black voters supported the billionaire. “First it was the white working class. Now it's also the Hispanic and black workers” who are abandoning the left, deplores Bernie Sanders.
“The party is increasingly represented by educated voters”notes Seth Masket, professor of political science at the University of Denver. The left electorate remains “very diverse” et “there are still many poor voters”, more “the latter formerly voted much more often for the Democrats”, confirms the author of Learning from defeat: Democrats, 2016-2020.
The erosion of the democratic vote of the working classes had begun well before the election, but a major issue this year may have accentuated it. “Voters really, really don’t like inflation”, comments Daniel Schlozman, professor of political science at Johns Hopkins University. In the United States as in other countries, “They are punishing the ruling party for something they did not like. This is the cruel logic of political affairs.”
“The Biden administration did not see itself in an existential war with inflation. This was detrimental to it.”
at franceinfo
Donald Trump, by relentlessly targeting the outgoing administration and therefore Vice-President Kamala Harris, has largely convinced people on this point. During the vote, nearly seven out of ten voters took a negative view of the economic situation, according to a CNN poll. And among them, a clear majority (70%) voted in favor of the Republican billionaire. Those whose financial situation has deteriorated over the last four years, 81% chose the populist candidate.
“This was the No. 1 issue for voters, and I don’t feel like the Democrats really talked about it.”regrets Nathan Daschle, Democratic consultant. According to him, the party wanted to place the right to abortion at the same level of importance as the economy or immigration, with the hope of mobilizing women. Kamala Harris also focused part of her speeches on democracy, “but it's an ivory tower subject”, believes the advisor. “This is an important problem for people who can pay the rent and their groceries.”
“I'm a Democrat, I've been a Democrat professionally for twenty years, and I don't know what our message was on inflation or the economy.”
Nathan Daschle, Democratic strategistat franceinfo
Mike Mikus, a Democratic consultant in Pittsburgh, in the swing state of Pennsylvania, says nothing else. “We lacked empathy and understanding towards these people [qui souffraient de l’inflation]. “As soon as someone talked about rising prices, we responded by talking about the positive aspects of the economy.” he notes. Several indicators are green, but the feelings of Americans are very different.
“They see that things cost more, and we tried in many ways to deny their reality. We seemed out of touch.”
Mike Mikus, Democratic consultantat franceinfo
The strategist also accuses his camp of having sent back an image of “lesson giver”particularly on social issues.
These choices had their effects on the electorate, including that of minorities. Hispanic voters, for example, “had good memories of the economy under Donald Trump”notes Daniel Schlozman. Discuss the candidate's racist remarks and criticize his personality “was not enough to prevent voters from voting for him.” A certain disappointment with the left also runs through these populations. Even the Trumpist line on immigration, very harsh and xenophobic, was able to attract Hispanics. The subject, notes the political scientist, “is very unpopular among the working classes”.
Democratic self-criticism is likely to continue over the coming months. Senator Andy Kim outlined on the social network X a series of lessons learned on the ground in his state of New Jersey: “humility rather than pride”, “listening” et the need to go “meet people where they are”. A way to win back lost voters from the working classes and minorities? For Mike Mikus, the question is existential for the party. “If we fail to reverse this trend, we risk being a minority party for a very long time.”
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