these predictive models which announced the election of Donald Trump

For forty years that they have been applied to the American presidential election, the predictive econometric models of the Political Forecasting Group have announced, in more than 80% of cases, the correct winner. For the election of November 5, 2024, as explained Le Figaro on October 30, models were more shared than ever. Out of thirteen, five of them predicted a majority of votes, in the popular vote, in favor of Donald Trump. And five out of eleven predicted a victory for Trump in the electoral college, with such a lead that on average, across all models, the Republican candidate brought together 281 voters (for a required majority of 270). This allowed us to affirm that on average, the models gave Trump the winner.

Faced with polls which at the end of October still gave a very close score between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, the models designed and finalized at the end of July therefore leaned on average towards the ex-president. Some of them…