The Supreme Court could provide protection against certain decisions by Donald Trump

(Washington) The Supreme Court has already awarded him more than he could have hoped for, but he wants even more. Returning to power, Donald Trump will be able to permanently tighten the conservative grip on the American judicial system, and even the Court itself.

In a historic judgment, the Court, by a majority of six votes to three – the conservative judges against the progressives – recognized in particular the 1^is July to the President of the United States a broad presumption of criminal immunity for his “official acts”.

It thus de facto allowed the ex-president not to be judged before the presidential election of November 5 for illicit attempts to reverse the results of the 2020 election won by Joe Biden.

And now his election ensures that he will escape virtually all prosecution until he leaves the White House.

Because of the magnitude of the victory, with a Republican majority in both houses of Parliament, “it appears inevitable that the Supreme Court will once again be the last institution able to oppose whatever Mr. Trump wants to do “, warns constitutional law professor Steve Vladeck.

Considering his previous mandate, “one does not have to be a great cleric to imagine that there will be cases in which his behavior will go too far for the current majority of the Court,” he wrote in an article published this week by THE New York Times.

“Go get seen”

The questions before the Supreme Court “will relate to respect for public freedoms and constitutional rights, for example with regard to the measures taken by the new administration in matters of immigration”, explains to AFP Christopher Peters, professor of law at the University of Akron.

“It is possible that a sufficient number of [juges de] the majority resists an extreme option that Trump could adopt,” he says, recalling that this has already happened during his first term, including from some of the three conservative judges he appointed for life.

“The Supreme Court is in a slightly better position to resist a little if it wishes because it is seen as so receptive to the positions of a Trump administration that it would be politically difficult for the latter to discredit it in the event of an unfavorable decision », adds Christopher Peters.

But according to Steve Vladeck, “it will be much more difficult this time for the judges to curb” Donald Trump, “even if they want to”, because the Court has discredited itself with “controversial judgments”, such as the annulment of federal protection of the right to abortion in 2022 or presidential immunity, and the “ethically questionable behavior of certain” judges.

The constitutionalist thus targets the largesse granted by billionaires to the two most conservative members, Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito.

“What happens if the Court rules against Mr. Trump and he tells them to fuck off?” », he also wonders.

“Presidents unhappy with Supreme Court decisions have nonetheless historically complied because of the political consequences of not doing so,” he recalls, citing the precedents of Richard Nixon and George W. Bush.

“A generation”

In this context, Donald Trump could further strengthen his hold on the levers of power in the event of a vacancy within the Court.

This hypothesis could materialize quickly if the deans of the Court, Clarence Thomas, 76 years old, and Samuel Alito, 74 years old, retire.

This would not change the balance of power between conservatives and progressives, but would make it long-term since Donald Trump would certainly choose much younger successors.

In this case “this would have to happen quickly and fairly early in the Trump presidency”, before the mid-term elections in 2026 likely to reverse the majority in the Senate, which rules on these appointments, Steven Schwinn tells AFP , professor of constitutional law at the University of Illinois at Chicago.

The decision is entirely up to them, but “they are both politically savvy enough to see that now is the time if they want to seal a conservative majority on the Court for at least another generation,” he emphasizes.

If he stayed until 2028, Clarence Thomas could, however, break the record for longevity of more than 36 years on the Supreme Court, held by progressive Justice William Douglas.