Tropical Storm Sara could cause disaster

Potential hurricane

Experts are almost certain: Sara could become a Category 1 hurricane. The disturbance became the 18th tropical storm of the season in the Atlantic basin. Sara is expected to move slowly westward in the Caribbean Sea, towards Honduras, in an environment with low wind shear and high humidity and ocean energy, ideal conditions for its development and intensification.

Abnormally hot

The surface water temperature is very unusual for this time of year. Typically, the water should cool down by mid-November, but that is not the case now. There are areas where the water is 29° off the Yucatán Peninsula, and 27° off southern Florida. These are temperatures we typically see in the middle of hurricane season. The storm will therefore draw moisture and heat to intensify.

Up to 700 mm of rain

Intense strengthening is likely over the weekend, but although hurricane development is likely, its magnitude is uncertain. A risk of significant precipitation in Central America is present for the weekend. We are talking about 500 to 700 mm possible along the coast.

Random development

High pressures appear to be developing in the eastern Caribbean and could thus direct tropical disturbances landward. The storm would thus lose strength, because it would no longer be able to draw heat and humidity from the warm waters. If it remains over the Caribbean Sea, however, the system could intensify and become a hurricane before making landfall on the Yucatán Peninsula by Monday.

Uncertain trajectory

For now, the trajectory of what Sara should become is uncertain. The forecast cone is very wide and what happens next depends on how long the system will take to pass over the Caribbean Sea where it will draw its energy. The depression is forecast to cross the Yucatán Peninsula, but the level of confidence for the future is low.

Very rare in November

If the system were to cross the Gulf of Mexico to hit Florida, it is likely that it would lose strength. The water is currently cooler in the Gulf than in the Caribbean Sea. In addition, wind shear is higher, and could disrupt the storm. If Sara becomes a hurricane and reaches Florida, it would be only the fourth to do so in any November. Yankee had reached the state in 1935, Kate in 1985, and Nicole in 2022.

With the collaboration of Bertin Ossonon, meteorologist.

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