The effects of the fight against global warming have stagnated for three years

The combined effects of measures taken by different governments around the world against climate change have stagnated over the past three years, a study warns Thursday, which affirms that Donald Trump's policies in the United States would only lead to a slight increase in warming . According to projections from the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) – a reference assessment tool – current climate measures would lead to warming of 2.7°C by 2100, as was already the case at COP26. from Glasgow three years ago. Taking into account the commitments of States by 2030, the projections suggest a warming of 2.6°C, compared to 2.5°C last year.

The organization highlights that 2024 has seen little progress, with “almost no new national climate targets or carbon neutrality promises”. And this while emissions linked to fossil fuels “continue to increase despite the fact that governments repeatedly agree to urgently strengthen their objectives for 2030 to align them with the objective of limiting warming to 1.5°C, the most ambitious target of the 2015 Paris Agreement.

The uncertain impact of the American elections

«The signatory countries have until February 2025 to unveil their objectives for 2035. According to the report's projections, peak emissions from fossil fuels will be reached by the end of the decade, but at a “much greater” level than the projections made three years ago. As for the impact of Donald Trump's return to the White House, the measures he promises in the United States could result in an increase in global temperatures of 0.04°C, according to the CAT.

“Clearly, we don't know the full impact of the U.S. election until President-elect Trump takes office, but there is clean energy momentum building in the U.S. that will be hard to stop.”said Bill Hare, head of Climate Analytics, one of the CAT groups.

“The emissions damage, confined to the United States and over four to five years, is probably recoverable”he declared. But the impact could be much greater if other countries use the declining ambitions of the United States, the world's second-largest emitter, as an excuse to slow down their own climate measures, he added. A question “fundamental”underlines Bill Hare, will be the reaction of China, the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world.