COP29 | Brazil accelerates, the United States pushes nuclear power, others slow down

(Baku) Brazil presented its new climate plan on Wednesday at COP29 in Azerbaijan, one of the countries to engage more in climate diplomacy threatened with breakdown in the face of the return of Donald Trump and austerity in Europe.

Very symbolically, the Brazilian Minister of the Environment Marina Silva submitted on Wednesday in Baku to the head of the UN Climate the new road map of her country for 2035, a mandatory document within the framework of the Paris agreement . It commits the country to having reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by 59-67% compared to 2005.

The top of the range “would put Brazil on the trajectory of carbon neutrality by 2050”, deciphers Karen Silverwood-Cope, of the NGO WRI. But not the low end, she warns.

The United States of Joe Biden, present at the UN conference, for their part announced a tripling of nuclear power by 2050, a project supposed to resist the presidency of Donald Trump.

Nuclear power is supported by American Republicans and Democrats, recalled Joe Biden’s climate advisor, Ali Zaidi, on Wednesday in Baku.

These declarations, as well as those of ambitious Europeans, contrast with those of several Western leaders traumatized by inflation, public deficits and social movements of recent years, and who have openly declared that they want to put on the brakes rather than the accelerator.

The head of the Italian government, Giorgia Meloni, assured that there was “no single alternative” to fossil fuels, that it was necessary to have a “realistic” vision and to be wary of any “overly ideological approach”.

“We cannot rush into industrial oblivion in the name of carbon neutrality,” declared Greek conservative Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, explaining that the “transition will not be painless”.

What are we doing here?

These economic and climate debates are being held in the year that will likely be the hottest ever measured, and will once again break a record for CO emissions.₂generated by the combustion of coal, oil and gas, according to a new estimate from scientists at the Global Carbon Project.

This study adds that the world must aim for net zero CO emissions₂ by the end of the 2030s to hope to contain global warming to 1.5°C, compared to the end of the 19th century. That is, much earlier than 2050, the horizon currently envisaged by around a hundred countries.

“This is what the presidency has been promoting since the beginning of the year: the time window is narrowing and we must act urgently,” reacted to AFP Ialtchine Rafiev, Azerbaijan’s main negotiator for the COP29.

For him, “it is still possible to keep 1.5°C within reach” and an agreement on climate finance by November 22 “will undoubtedly pave the way”.

But in just four minutes, the Prime Minister of a small country usually discreet in this forum, Albania, summed up the ambient doubts.

“Life continues with its old habits and our speeches full of good intentions on the fight against climate change change nothing,” regretted Edi Rama.

“What the hell are we doing in this assembly, if again and again, there is no common political will to unite and move from words to action? » he said.

1300 billion

Westerners appear reluctant to spend more in times of austerity, calling for the mobilization of the private sector – a “wishful wish” for NGOs.

To convince them, the head of the UN Climate and vulnerable countries argue that too extreme a climate will cause inflation and economic damage everywhere, including in the North.

“The fires that devour your forests, the hurricanes that hit our homes are not distant misfortunes, but shared tragedies,” explained Philip Davis, Prime Minister of the Bahamas.

In substance, negotiators released a new draft agreement on financing, which includes a series of options, but leaves sticking points unresolved.

Most developing countries are in favor of an annual commitment from rich countries of at least 1,300 billion dollars (compared to around a hundred today), and are calling for more grants rather than loans.