By Arnaud FISCHER and the computer graphics department.
Cop29, the Baku conference on climate change, takes place from November 11 to 22, 2024 in Azerbaijan. The stakes for the planet are enormous. The evening edition presents eight graphs which allow us to measure the distance that remains to be taken to limit global warming.
We are there. Cop29, the international climate conference held under the aegis of the United Nations, has just opened in Baku, Azerbaijan. From November 11 to 22, 2024, States must agree on a new global financing objective to fight global warming. Last year, the Cop28 in Dubai (United Arab Emirates) was marked by a “historic” agreement on a slow transition away from fossil fuels. But the road ahead to limit global warming remains immense.
The sixth report of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), which serves as a scientific reference for climate discussions, observes a warming of 1.1 ° C since the start of the industrial era, and the attributed to human activities. Experts emphasize the need to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050 (a balance between carbon emissions and the absorption of carbon from the atmosphere by carbon sinks), then switch to carbon negative (when manufacturing ‘a product allows more carbon to be stored than it releases), to have a chance of limiting the rise in temperatures below 1.5°C.
Read also: VIDEO. Cop28: a “historic” assessment, with notable progress, but also a source of concern
Insufficient objectives
For the moment, the commitments made by States at previous summits are still largely insufficient to limit the global warming of planet temperatures. At the current rate, there will still be more than 40% too many emissions in the atmosphere to remain below 1.5°C in 2100. Countries must then make firm and conditional commitments and stick to them.
Read also: Exceeding 1.5°C of warming, even temporarily, would have “irreversible” consequences
Big polluters need to do more
China and the United States are by far the worst performers. Together, they represent more than 40% of greenhouse gas emissions. And it is likely to continue like this. The election of climate skeptic Donald Trump as President of the United States on November 6 goes in the opposite direction of policies to reduce these emissions. The newly elected Republican once again wants to leave the Paris climate agreement and abolish the Environmental Protection Agency.
In terms of other main emitters, the European Union has reduced its global share of greenhouse gas emissions from 7% in 2023 to 6% in 2024. Conversely, India goes from 7% % to 8% of global emissions from one year to the next.
The richest are those who pollute the most
This is nothing new, the biggest polluters are the richest. The richest 1% emitted, in 2019, 76 tonnes of CO2 per year and per person on average when, at the same time, the poorest 50% of the world’s population released only one tonne per year and per person on average. Even more eloquent, the richest 0.1% still emitted 216 tonnes of CO in 2019.2 per year and per person on average.
According to the Oxfam report, published on November 20, 2023 ahead of the Cop28 in Dubai and cited by the British daily The Guardian, “the polluter elite, made up of 77 million people who earn more than $140,000 [131 840 euros] per year, was responsible for 16% of carbon dioxide emissions in 2019 ».
Read also: Human-caused global warming has reached an “unprecedented rate”
Accelerate the energy transition
With a goal of carbon neutrality in 2050, the energy transition will play an essential role. We must reduce as much as possible the use of fossil fuels (gas, oil, coal), the main causes of climate change, and encourage the exploitation of renewable energies. While it is possible to do without coal by 2050, it is less likely for oil and gas, which are still very present in our current society.
Commit to carbon neutrality
Without firm and conditional commitments from States, the global temperature of the planet will certainly exceed 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial times. Worse, staying below even 2°C would be almost impossible.
But if all stakeholders are committed to carbon neutrality, there is still a little hope, particularly to stay below the 2°C objective. That of 1.5°C would remain complicated to achieve.
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