“Other countries are unlikely to follow Donald Trump if he pulls the United States out of the Paris agreement”

AAfter years of avoiding any reference to the main cause of climate change, COP28 negotiators [réunis à Dubaï, aux Emirats arabes unis] have finally found an agreement in 2023 for a “transition away from fossil fuels”. This long overdue “UAE Consensus” was the collective response to the Global Stocktake, a “global stocktake” of progress made under the Paris Agreement, which showed that we are heading towards global warming. almost 3°C [par rapport à l’ère préindustrielle]which would have disastrous consequences.

The Global Stocktake thus confirmed what is increasingly obvious: the climate crisis is worsening everywhere. The cost of inaction continues to rise and misinformation, no matter how strong, cannot mask this reality.

The Dubai deal has been met with understandable skepticism, given past broken promises. Like many others, I asserted that its success would depend on action, not words.

So where are we, one year later? The good news is that renewable energy is booming, and global capacity is growing at a remarkable rate. Strong economic momentum makes it unlikely that other countries will follow President Donald Trump if he pulls the United States out of the Paris agreement. Today, countries know that their future prosperity depends on the availability of abundant clean energy and the technologies that make it possible. China has focused on leadership in green technologies and has acquired vast excess production capacity that it needs to export. All over the world, economic logic trumps ideology.

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However, for now, renewable energies are adding to fossil fuels, rather than replacing them: according to the International Energy Agency, the latter have met two-thirds of the growth in energy demand in 2023. And even if the use of fossil fuels is expected to peak in 2030, reductions will remain far too slow to reach the 1.5°C or even 2°C targets.

Countries now have the opportunity to prove that their commitments in Dubai are sincere. If they are serious about phasing out fossil fuels, they must use their new climate change plans, due in 2025, to present concrete strategies to get there. This is no small feat: it requires a fundamental transformation of energy systems in a short period of time.

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