Nothing is going well for Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Germany entered a period of major political crisis on Wednesday evening with the breakup of the fragile coalition government. Early elections could take place in early 2025.
This earthquake could not come at a worse time for the European Union’s largest economy, grappling with a serious industrial crisis and which is worried about the repercussions for its trade of the election of Donald Trump in the United States.
Months of quarrels
At the head of the country since the end of 2021, the heterogeneous coalition uniting social democrats and environmentalists with the liberals of the FDP was shattered following the dismissal of Finance Minister Christian Lindner and leader of the liberals. The other liberal ministers announced their departure from the government late in the evening, depriving Olaf Scholz of a majority in the Chamber of Deputies. Faced with the “ultimatums” of his minister, a supporter of strict budgetary rigor, the social democratic chancellor judged, during a solemn speech, that there was no longer “sufficient confidence for the pursuit of a cooperation “.
This decision is the culmination of months of quarrels between the three government parties over the economic policy to be pursued, which was further accentuated during the preparation of the 2025 budget, which must at all costs be completed in November.
The chancellor announced that he would ask MPs on January 15 to decide whether to hold early elections. If the elected representatives of the Bundestag want legislative elections to be held before the scheduled date in September 2025, they could take place “at the latest at the end of March”, indicated Olaf Scholz.
Very rare coalition ruptures
Olaf Scholz and Christian Lindner aired their grievances through microphones. Christian Lindner has “too often betrayed my trust”, lamented Olaf Scholz, denouncing “selfish” behavior. The champion of budgetary austerity immediately responded, accusing the chancellor of leading the country “into a phase of uncertainty” with this “calculated rupture of this coalition”.
Our file on Germany
Coalition ruptures are very rare in Germany and Olaf Scholz initially wanted to lead his until the next legislative elections scheduled for September 28, 2025. But the government team has been undermined for months by political dissensions, particularly on the economy and the immigration, and by personal quarrels. Olaf Scholz hoped that the election of Donald Trump, a fan of protectionism and diplomatic confrontations, would force his coalition to close ranks. But the opposite happened.
The AfD in ambush
If elections were to be held tomorrow, the conservative opposition would come out on top with more than 30% of the vote according to polls and its leader Friedrich Merz would be the favorite to become chancellor. But he too would have difficulty forming a majority coalition, with the far-right AfD in ambush.
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