Donald Trump elected president: What can we now expect in the conflict in Ukraine?

During his campaign, the new president explained several times that he would resolve the Russian-Ukrainian conflict if elected, but without explaining how. What can we now expect from his mandate in terms of the conflict in Ukraine?

American presidential election seen from kyiv: “If it’s Trump, it’s even worse. He’s friends with Putin!”

Towards a reduction in aid

Overall, foreign policy was not very present in the American presidential campaign, “focused on domestic questions and invectives. Russia and the war in Ukraine were barely mentioned“, estimates Julien Zarifian, professor at the University of Poitiers, specialist in the United States, and member of the University Institute of France. It is therefore difficult to look into a crystal ball. According to information provided by his running mate James David Vance, Donald Trump would try to impose a peace on Ukraine which would provide for the abandonment, for the latter, of Crimea and undoubtedly the eastern regions under Russian control, or at least part of them But all this lacks precision.

Joe Biden announced on October 16 new aid amounting to $425 million, which is in addition to the $175 billion already allocated since the start of the invasion. What about the future of this valuable aid? For the specialist, “what is certain is that the line of a Trump presidency would, compared to the Biden presidency, be much less that of strong support for Ukraine, support perceived as costly, ineffective, even sterile.“

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin more inseparable than ever

On the side of the European Union, the position regarding support for Ukrainian defense has not changed. “We deal in facts, not statements. We are convinced that the United States, like us, has a key interest in having a strong and sovereign Ukraine. We will continue to implement our policies […] for a stable and just peace in Ukraine“, assures Eric Mamer, spokesperson for the European Commission.

Better understanding with the Kremlin?

Will the new president’s policy therefore be pro-Russian? According to Julien Zarifian, “the relationship between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin is quite surprising, visibly tinged with respect, even admiration, for reasons that no one can really explain. But as President Putin has publicly noted, sanctions against Russia were particularly high during the Trump presidency.“Moreover, through its spokesperson Dmitri Peskov, the Kremlin has indicated that it does not plan to congratulate Donald Trump, specifying that the latter will be judged on”concrete actions“.

“On the Russian side, even if the speech remains measured, even ambiguous, we can think that Trump is favored by the Kremlincontinues the expert, who is nevertheless cautious. It is not guaranteed that the Republican’s election will immediately improve relations between Washington and Moscow.“

“Putin had to bring out the champagne. But for Xi Jinping, a Trump victory is more complex to manage”

To a greater extent, relations between the United States and Russia will nevertheless remain “central and structuring“, both for Washington and for Moscow. The interests between the two countries remain”deeply divergent, whether we think of Ukraine, the Middle East or their vision of the world order. In Russia, it is impossible to think internationally without referring to ‘the West’, and therefore to the United States.“