Why defend the scenario, at this hypothetical stage, of a Donald Trump victory? Firstly because nothing affects it. The legal cases, the excesses of his camp, his inconsistencies, his lies sometimes. Nothing moves the polls. His supporters remain loyal to him.
And besides, the polls bode well for the Republican. Even if his lead is tiny, he is in the lead in the four key southern states: North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. It would then be enough for him to win a single northern state, between Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, to access the White House. However, in 2016, he had conquered all three! We can also assume that the institutes underestimate the Trump vote. This was the case in 2016 and 2020. It is difficult to survey voters who are fleeing the system and do not lend themselves to the survey game.
And then Donald Trump is not in office and that’s a huge advantage. Almost everywhere in the world, school leavers leave with a disability. Voters are hungry for change, they want to test new recipes. Sure, Joe Biden isn’t on the ballot, but Kamala Harris is associated with his record. And the current president is unpopular. 56% of Americans disapprove of his action.
Trump begins almost all his meetings with the same question: “Are you richer (better off) than 4 years ago?” “. And the crowd invariably shouts “no!” “. This is partly unfair because the American economy is doing quite well. But inflation reached record highs during the Biden years, and Americans blame the Democratic administration for it.
Trump has imposed campaign themes that hit the mark, starting with immigration. For more than 80% of pro-Trump activists, this is a major issue. Under Biden, the United States has seen record numbers of illegal entries into the country. And the billionaire campaigned on this theme, with very harsh words: he calls immigrants “criminals”, “rapists”… who “poison the blood of America”. He proposed the largest deportation program in the country’s history. A speech that delights the crowds of MAGA supporters during his meetings.
Generally speaking, Trump is successful in mobilizing voters. He’s a showman, a TV star, a entertainer. He was at a meeting last night in Michigan until 2:10 in the morning. Trump goes out of his text, multiplies the digressions, sometimes without any sense, but he displays an impressive energy for a 78-year-old man, he entertains his audience. Much more than Kamala Harris who sometimes has difficulty breaking through the armor.
He presents himself as a strong man in the face of the crises sweeping the world. It exalts American patriotism, family, traditional values. His economic program is elementary: increase customs duties, produce and buy American. This speech appeals to men, especially non-educated whites, who mostly vote for him. And it appeals more and more to minorities, blacks, Latinos.
This is why Donald Trump will win!
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