American presidential election: misinformation, disruptions, protests, what could happen if Donald Trump rejects the results

If the D-day of the American presidential election is set for November 5, it is likely that we will have to wait to know the identity of the winner, between Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump . Particularly due to delays in processing postal votes.

In 2020, during the previous election, some states experienced a “mirage rouge”Donald Trump having been given the lead on election night, before a “blue turn”when his Democratic rival Joe Biden had overtaken him. The Republican used this phenomenon to amplify his baseless accusations that the vote was stolen from him.

The first indications could thus prove to be misleading: one of the candidates could have a clear lead with the counting of the first ballots, before his rival catches up over the hours, or even days. .

If he is defeated, Trump will cry fraud

However, former President Donald Trump, Republican candidate for a second term, first suggested, then assumed more and more clearly as the campaign progressed, that he would again cry fraud if he were to lose the ballot and that he would still reject the results

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Once his electoral defeat was recorded in November 2020, Donald Trump, then in power, and his allies tried to reverse the results, filing dozens of complaints across the country. In vain.

The former real estate mogul also put pressure on officials in the state of Georgia, where Joe Biden narrowly beat him, to change the ballot count.

The memory of the bloody assault on the Capitol

And no one has forgotten that hundreds of Donald Trump supporters led a bloody assault on the Capitol in Washington on January 6, 2021, to try to prevent Republican Vice President Mike Pence and Congress from certifying the electoral victory. of Democratic candidate Joe Biden.

This time, Donald Trump no longer has the levers of presidential power. Another notable difference: new laws have come into force, at the local and federal level, in order to further protect electoral results from the risks of influence.

Despite everything, Donald Trump and his allies have for months been laying the foundations for a wave of protests if the Republican candidate were to lose the November 5 election. He could again go to court to challenge a victory for his Democratic rival, Vice-President Kamala Harris, or raise doubts among his supporters about the validity of the vote, with unpredictable consequences.

Counting over several days possible

Republicans and Democrats therefore expect the counting of votes across the country to take place over several days, beyond November 5, in particular to record the ballots sent by mail and verify the counts.

If projections indicate a defeat for Donald Trump, this delay could offer him a window to denounce fraud and try to instill distrust in electoral officials, without ruling out possible calls for his supporters to demonstrate. .

Republicans have already preemptively filed more than a hundred complaints in states considered decisive for the vote, with the aim of preparing the ground for post-election procedures, deploring without proof that foreigners will vote en masse. .

Disruptors?

In both camps, it is planned to deploy thousands of qualified volunteers as observers of the voting process and the counting of ballots, to report any irregularities if necessary.

Democratic activists already say they worry that Republican observers could act as disruptors. The Republican Party, for its part, promises that volunteers have been trained to respect the law.

But allies of Donald Trump in key states, whether electoral officials, elected officials, or even judges, could, as in 2020, try to delay the validation of the count and the certification of the results at the local level. , citing suspicions of fraud. These maneuvers did not work during the previous election.

Potentially exploited delays?

However, legal proceedings initiated by Republicans and any delays in validating ballot counts could prevent a state from reporting its results on time, giving Republicans grounds for objections to Congress.