The Nevada Oracle’s Prediction: Harris

Journalist John Ralston is the essential reference for analyzing advance voting in Nevada, an expertise that allows him to accurately predict the tightest elections. In recent weeks, he has sowed hope among Republicans by repeatedly asserting that GOP voters were availing themselves of early voting in greater numbers than Democrats, a first. There remained a mystery: the direction of the vote of independent or non-partisan voters, more numerous than ever. Ralston believes he has solved this mystery, which pushes him this Monday to predict Kamala Harris’ victory in the Silver State.

“The key to this election has always been the distribution of non-major party voters, as they now represent the majority of the state,” writes Ralston on his news site. “They will represent about 30% of the electorate and if they lean enough in favor of Harris, she will win Nevada. I think it will, and I’ll tell you why: Many believe that with the GOP catching up with the Democrats on voter registration, the automatic voter registration plan pushed by the Democrats , which automatically registers people as nonpartisan (unless they choose a party) at the DMV, has been a failure for the party. But I don’t think that’s the case. There are many non-partisans who are closet Democrats and who have been deliberately registered as non-partisan by Democratic-aligned groups. The machine knows who they are and will make them vote. That will be just enough to overtake the Republican lead – with women motivated by abortion and the cross-voting this issue will also cause. »

The machine Ralston speaks of is that of the late Harry Reid, former Senate majority leader, who has no equal in mobilizing voters and encouraging them to vote the right way. Ralston’s prediction remains a surprise. After Arizona, Nevada is the key state where Harris faces conditions that are expected to cause her to lose. We are thinking in particular of inflation and housing.

But Ralston has never been wrong yet.

(Photo iStock)