Never in the history of the world have the outcome of two wars been so dependent on the results of an American election. A few tens of thousands of voters in a few key states in the United States could change the fate of the world. The chances of Donald Trump being re-elected as President of the United States are very high. Trump’s team is circulating in the media that he has never started a war against other countries, unlike other American presidents. For a few, Kamala Harris is presented as a “go-to-war”. Trump’s pacifist posture hides the essential. What price will have to be paid to end the war in Ukraine? How far is the United States willing to support Israel in its wars? Trump’s statements suggest a return to isolationism. America’s allies are preparing for it.
1) What foreign policy lessons can we draw from Trump’s first term?
Trump’s first term was a foreign policy disaster for the United States. Trump’s visit to North Korea made it possible to break the diplomatic isolation of Kim Jong-un, without compensation on his part. Trump’s sanctions on China have had only a mixed effect. But above all, Trump has considerably weakened the Department of Secretary of State, and, with it, the entire foreign policy of the United States. Trump also met privately, for many hours, with Vladimir Putin. In fact, he has amply demonstrated his love of dictators.
2) If re-elected, what will Trump do with Ukraine?
Trump has no appetite for supporting a war in Ukraine. He will probably negotiate a withdrawal of Russian troops in exchange for the abandonment of part of Ukraine, which is unacceptable for Ukraine which would refuse this condition. It would then be easy for Trump to use this pretext to stop supporting Ukraine.
3) What will Trump do with Taiwan and Israel?
Trump has reduced the Taiwan problem to a simple trade question: you want us to help you militarily? So pay us. These payments could last for a while, but they would become unsustainable in the long term for Taiwan. As for Israel, Trump offers it unconditional support. He even said that the Israeli army should attack Iranian nuclear facilities. However, Iran probably has some atomic bombs. Israel has around 200.
4) How are US allies reacting to Trump’s anticipated return?
US allies are strengthening their alliances with each other, but without the United States. In this regard, a remarkable defense treaty has just been signed between Japan and the European Union. The United States is not one of them.
5) Would American isolationism help reduce the number of wars?
Contrary to what Russian-Chinese propaganda peddles, the United States has not started many wars in recent decades. In Libya, they were manipulated by disinformation from Saudi Arabia. In Iraq, they responded to the invasion of their ally, Kuwait, by Iraqi troops. In Afghanistan, they responded to the September 11 attacks perpetrated by Al-Qaeda, while the Afghan government refused to hand over the members of this organization who had established themselves on its territory. American isolationism would risk worsening conflicts around the planet. Indeed, in the absence of American involvement in their region, several states could be tempted to redraw borders with which they are unhappy, starting with Russia. All in all, Trump’s pseudo-pacifist position risks provoking more conflict.
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