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“Towards war?” by Sébastien Lecornu, French Minister of the Armed Forces: “We are not experiencing a parenthesis but a profound strategic rupture”

According to our colleagues at MondeEmmanuel Macron himself insisted on keeping him as Minister of the Armed Forces, a position he has held since 2022, while Michel Barnier wanted to renew all the heads of the government. Sébastien Lecornu is also one of the rare ministers whose budget has not been reduced. It benefits from the most substantial increase (+ 3.3%) for the benefit of the new military programming law (voted in the summer of 2023, without 49.3) intended to boost French military power by 2030.

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Discreet in the light of the “great mute” for which he is responsible, the Minister of the Armed Forces comes out of his reserve to present his vision in Towards war?. The essay reads like a white paper as a battle plan. The title is intended to reflect the urgency of the moment (“We are not at war, but, obviously, we are no longer in the peace that we had known until now”).

If the question mark in the title remains in force on this side of Europe, Towards war? recalls, however, that “the moment we are experiencing is not a parenthesis but represents a profound strategic rupture”. And who says rupture, says (r) evolution, develops Sébastien Lecornu who “[appelle] to a national, moral and patriotic surge”.

The Gaullist echo of the formula is not accidental. The minister mentions in the preamble a resistant grandfather and places himself, with supporting quotes, in the legacy of Pierre Mesmer, companion of the Liberation, involved from the start in the Free French Forces then Minister of the General’s Armies from 1960 to 1969, a decade during which became a nuclear power.

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No nostalgia however, warns his distant successor, but an inspiration to evolve military doctrine following a method “made of modernity and non-conformism” pour “the execution of reforms”. Necessary, therefore: “we must have the humility to recognize that we still live on the basis of a model resulting from the decisions taken in the 1960s”. His motto remains the same, however: “make our country greater than it is[est] really”.

The keystone of this ambition: nuclear force, “dissuasive” more “weapon of use [de dernier recours]” (to assert otherwise would be “to deny its political and strategic significance”). But, in a world where more and more fires are being lit and where certain powers advance their pawns by proxy via “proxies” (or “third parties”, paramilitaries or terrorists), we also need response capabilities on a case-by-case basis. case, a responsiveness that is both flexible and muscular.

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This pro domo plea, necessarily Franco-French (and not devoid of political ulterior motives) is valid for its lucid overview which is wide-ranging: it is a question of Ukraine and NATO, of course, of relations with Russia and China, asymmetric or hybrid wars, drones, cyberwar, artificial intelligence and, even, the (second) quantum revolution which the minister warns will have an impact on the armies.

The tone may seem paradoxical. Because it is also an assessment for the minister in office for two and a half years and the president of whom he is loyal. The temptation of “everything is for the best in the best of Hexagons” (endowed with the best armies, technologies and industries…) points between the lines. And yet…”To say that we are completely ready to assume all possible security crisis scenarios would be propaganda and even a lie.” And to conclude with this understatement, a nod to a quote from Emmanuel Macron: “We are no longer at peace”.

Towards war? Sébastien Lecornu, Plon, 288 pages, €20

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