LA TRIBUNE SUNDAY – Are you worried about the situation in Lebanon?
JEAN-YVES LE DRIAN – Obviously, because if we are not careful, the country is in danger of death and dislocation. Firstly because it becomes, through Israeli strikes and Hezbollah responses, the closed field of confrontation between Israel and Iran. Added to this is poverty, a considerable economic deterioration which prevents the State from providing for the needs of the Lebanese. However, because of the war, 1 million inhabitants out of a population of 5.5 million are now displaced. There is also the paralysis of political life and this inability of Lebanese officials to agree on the name of a President of the Republic. However, it would be important, in a period like this, for a personality to embody the country and defend its integrity. All of this constitutes the potential elements of chaos. Not to mention the risk of civil war.
When Benjamin Netanyahu asks the Lebanese to get rid of Hezbollah themselves, is he not pushing for this last scenario?
Of course. This risk is aggravated by these comments. This is serious interference, and threatening Lebanon with a second Gaza constitutes an unacceptable provocation.
“Netanyahu wants to destroy the Gaza Strip to make it unlivable” (Guillaume Ancel, writer and former artillery officer)
Doesn’t the war in Lebanon signal the failure of diplomacy?
Until the elimination of Hassan Nasrallah [secrétaire général du Hezbollah]diplomacy acted to comply with United Nations Resolution 1701 in all its provisions. The conditions were almost met for a negotiation to be triggered on its application. These are the bases that were retained in the Franco-American ceasefire proposal at the end of September. It was supported by Lebanon and the Arab countries and could help resolve the situation on Israel’s northern border.
Did the Israelis know about this possible agreement?
Yes but, unfortunately, the intervention that we are experiencing has broken this dynamic. However, the conditions for discussions on this resolution 1701 can be found provided that there is a ceasefire. The latest statements from Naim Qassem, the deputy secretary general of Hezbollah, go in this direction: he no longer subordinates either the ceasefire or the discussions on resolution 1701 to stopping the war in Gaza. You have to grab the poles he holds out.
Except that Washington no longer pushes as much for this truce…
In Lebanon as in Gaza, the United States is torn between its concern to preserve Israel’s security and its fears of destabilization of the region. In the middle of an electoral period, they have great difficulty imposing a political line. Although I observed that Joe Biden condemned the worsening of Israeli strikes on Lebanon.
He also described the elimination of Nasrallah as “ measure of justice “. Do you share this opinion?
We know what Nasrallah did, particularly to the French. Hezbollah is, in its armed part, a terrorist organization. What we want with our international partners is to prevent this armed faction from maintaining its pressure on Israel.
Hacking of pagers in Lebanon: “An exceptional but cruel and barbaric operation” (Vincent Crouzet, ex-DGSE)
On the other hand, is its political branch an actor to be taken into account?
We have to talk to her and I myself talk to her, because she is represented in the Lebanese Parliament and some of the Shiites are there, as they are in the Amal party. This community represents 30% of the Lebanese population. We cannot put her aside or humiliate her.
But is Hezbollah really ready to compromise?
We must now put him against the wall. Through the ceasefire and through negotiations on Resolution 1701.
Are the Israelis willing to negotiate?
My deep question concerns the war aims of the Netanyahu government. Of course, the cause of the current situation is the pogrom of October 7. Israel was in a state of self-defense and its response to this barbaric, inhumane, unbearable aggression could be supported. But, gradually, the response became collective punishment, with indiscriminate reprisals, condemned by international law. Everything happens as if the war had no real political objectives. We are in a headlong rush into the endless war.
Should we, as Emmanuel Macron demanded, stop selling weapons to Israel that are used in Gaza?
I note, with the President of the Republic, that there is a contradiction between a repeated demand for a ceasefire and the permanent delivery of weapons which strike the population in Gaza. This also applies to Lebanon. As long as this contradiction is not resolved, we will fuel this logic of perpetual war.
Doesn’t this position isolate France?
Rather, it is Israel that is isolating itself from the world. Because, once again, we do not identify the war objectives. If they consist of defeating Hamas militarily, it is done, if we are to believe the recent remarks of the chief of staff of the Israeli army. If it is a question of eliminating the heads of Hezbollah and weakening it, that too is done. From there, what is the goal today?
Reshape the map of the Middle East?
Formula of sad memory. This was the vision of the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan, with the success that we know. The day after October 7, Joe Biden told the Israelis: “ Don’t be like us, don’t let rage guide your action. » This ideology of transforming the Middle East by force is full of illusions and very dangerous.
Are you sure that your voice and that of France still carry in Lebanon?
Yes, and I see it every time I go there. I am heard and even asked, whether by political actors or by those in civil society. The French are the only ones who talk to everyone. It is in this context that France can organize the conference primarily for humanitarian purposes which will be held on October 24. She is also at the initiative of joint communication on the ceasefire with the United States. Let us also not forget our presence in UNIFIL [Force intérimaire de l’ONU au Liban].
Israel orders evacuation of southern Lebanon, peacekeepers refuse to withdraw
How do you react to the shootings against the peacekeepers this week?
This is outrageous and represents an unacceptable violation of international law. Israel must stop and explain itself. It will be up to the Security Council to deal with this issue, and it is important to me that it is dealt with.
Should we fear Tel Aviv’s response after the firing of 200 Iranian missiles on its soil ten days ago?
The possibility of a regional conflagration is real and we must hope that the Israeli response is targeted and proportionate. More broadly, we are faced with two denials: that of Israel with regard to a Palestinian state and that of Iran with regard to Israel. Ayatollah Khamenei proclaims that Israel does not have much longer. For their part, the Israelis do not envisage the two-state solution at all. This is the source of a major confrontation.
Is Iran ready for this confrontation?
The missile attack against Israel marks a significant turning point. However, I believed, with the arrival of President Pezechkian and his speech to the United Nations, that there could be a change in the Iranian position, including on nuclear power. But since one of its trump cards in the region, namely Hezbollah, was reached, Tehran, after an internal debate, has triggered a dangerous spiral which it knows can escape it. Between Pezechkian’s message and the major direct aggression on Israeli territory, where is the regime’s position? We should find out in the coming days.
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