Does Hezbollah really have other weapons it could use?

On October 8, Hezbollah launched 85 rockets at the northern Israeli city of Haifa. It was the largest barrage since the start of the war a year ago between the Shiite party and the Jewish state, in the wake of the conflict in Gaza. These strikes come as the Israeli army continues its air raids in Lebanon, particularly against the southern suburbs of Beirut, and increases its ground incursions in the south of the country, as part of a military escalation which began on September 23.

In a speech also delivered on October 8, the deputy secretary general of Hezbollah, Sheikh Naïm Kassem, insisted on the “resilience” of the party, despite the blows dealt to the Shiite formation, notably the assassination of its leader Hassan Nasrallah on September 27 during a massive Israeli aerial bombardment on the southern suburbs of the capital. A statement from Naïm Kassem particularly caught the attention of certain analysts: Hezbollah’s firepower would not be “limited to missiles or assault drones”, suggesting that new weapons could be used.

A video released by the party’s military media outlet the same day, on the first anniversary of Hezbollah’s opening of its “support front” for its Palestinian ally in Gaza, Hamas, also raised concerns questions.

The last seconds of this video which has circulated widely on social networks show images filmed from a basement with an opening above, suggesting that it is an underground missile launch site. These images have sparked speculation that Hezbollah may have military capabilities that it has not yet used. L’Orient Today takes stock with three experts.

“Hezbollah’s arsenal seems limited”

“The videos released by Hezbollah are propaganda intended to deter Israelis. However, they failed to prevent Israeli attacks and raised expectations among party supporters. The latter are in shock and awaiting a response,” said Mohanad Hage Ali, researcher at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. “A year has passed, and during this time we have not seen any major surprises or use of different types of sophisticated drones. The use of this type of weapon even decreased after Israel targeted and destroyed warehouses believed to belong to Hezbollah,” adds the researcher. “We don’t really know what’s holding them back. Only the party knows. Hezbollah’s arsenal appears limited at this stage. If there were to be a surprise, I would be really surprised. “Enough time has passed for us to judge what we have seen so far, and it does not look promising for the party,” says Hage Ali.

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Conversely, Kassem Kassir, an analyst close to Hezbollah, assures that Hezbollah could use new weapons “if Israel targets the city of Beirut or vital installations such as the international airport or the port of the capital”.

Israel has already attacked Beirut three times since the start of the escalation, in what appear to be targeted strikes: on September 29, October 2 and this Thursday, October 10. The first time, an airstrike targeted a residential building near the Cola bus station, killing three members of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. The second attack hit a medical center in the Bachoura district, in the center of the capital, not far from the Grand Serail, the seat of the Council presidency. Nine rescuers affiliated with Hezbollah were killed in the strike and 14 others injured. The latest attack, that of Thursday, hit the residential district of Ras el-Nabeh.

“Only Hezbollah knows its own capabilities”

Returning to the Hezbollah video, Kassem Kassir believes that any analysis of these images “is purely speculation on the group’s capabilities and is not something we can rely on with certainty”. However, he raises the possibility that the party could use sophisticated weapons, without going into details.

Military expert Riad Kahwaji insists for his part that only “Hezbollah knows its own capabilities and the videos published by the group do not necessarily show its capabilities on the ground.” But according to him, Hezbollah does not have “other weapons”. “There is nothing left. The party has used weapons as large as ballistic missiles. These are just lip service to boost morale and give the impression of being strong and defiant. Israel crossed all the red lines regarding the scale of the bombings, the type of targets and the incursion into the South,” he recalls. “Hezbollah’s arms and ammunition depots are targeted and destroyed daily, which degrades their firepower, and the continued elimination of their commanders disrupts their operations,” underlines Riad Kahwaji.

Mohanad Hage Ali agrees: “Many launch capabilities were attacked and severely damaged. Even though they have new rockets, it seems that their effectiveness has been compromised,” he said. “Israel has carried out continued attacks and airstrikes that have prevented the party from regrouping or regaining momentum. Hezbollah is on the defensive and seeking a ceasefire which is not likely in the near future,” continues Riad Kahwaji. But for Kassem Kassir, the Shiite party is waiting for a significant escalation from Israel, such as strikes on key Lebanese infrastructure, before revealing its full capabilities.

Hezbollah did not respond to requests for comment from L’Orient Today.