In an increasingly tense geopolitical context, the Gulf States find themselves at the heart of a delicate diplomatic game between Israel, Iran and the United States. According to information from the Reuters agency, these oil-producing countries are exerting considerable pressure on Washington to curb any Israeli desire to attack Iranian oil installations.
This approach, motivated by fear of Iranian reprisals on their own oil infrastructure, illustrates the fragility of the regional balance. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have made clear their refusal to let Israel use their airspace for a possible attack on Iran.
Tensions rose when Tehran warned Riyadh that it could not guarantee the security of Saudi facilities if any assistance was provided to Israel. This barely veiled threat underlines the scale of the stakes for the Gulf monarchies, caught between their Western allies and their powerful Iranian neighbor. The specter of an oil war hangs over the region. An attack on Iranian facilities could trigger a chain reaction, jeopardizing global oil supplies. The economic and geopolitical consequences of such a scenario would be disastrous, particularly for China, Iran’s main oil customer, and for the United States in the run-up to the presidential election. Faced with this explosive situation, diplomacy is being activated. The Iranian Foreign Minister’s visit to the Gulf countries and communications between Riyadh and Washington demonstrate coordinated efforts to defuse the crisis. However, despite their advanced defense systems, the Gulf states remain vulnerable. As Bernard Haykel, a professor at Princeton University cited by Reuters, points out, “the Iranians can overwhelm these facilities given the short distance that separates them from the continent.”
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