Japan: Prime Minister banks on his political “honeymoon” to win early legislative elections

New Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba must dissolve the lower house of Parliament on Wednesday before early legislative elections on October 27, hoping to take advantage of his political “honeymoon” to lead his scandal-ridden party to victory.

Mr. Ishiba, 67, will seek through this election to consolidate his mandate in order to implement his program of strengthening security and defense, increased support for low-income households and revitalization of the Japanese countryside.

The government of his predecessor Fumio Kishida, in office for almost three years, suffered from historically low popularity polls, in part because of a financing scandal that affected his Liberal Democratic Party (PLD, conservative right), from which Mr. Ishiba also comes.

Fumio Kishida was also unpopular due to his perceived inability to combat inflation, which has dented Japanese purchasing power since 2022.

The PLD nevertheless has, with its coalition partner, the Komeito (center-right), a comfortable majority in the lower house (290 seats out of 465).

With the dissolution of the lower house of Parliament, Mr. Ishiba wants to put his party to the test in the elections before the end of its “honeymoon” period, analyzes Yu Uchiyama, professor of political science at the University of Tokyo .

“It is logical that he wanted to call a quick election as soon as the ‘face’ of the party has changed, while the momentum is still there,” adds Mr. Uchiyama, interviewed by AFP.

According to this expert, Shigeru Ishiba also wanted to take the opposition by surprise, because the PLD’s opponents remain undecided on how to coordinate for the election.

– Show that he can be “strict” –

But the decision to call early elections has also been criticized because it contradicts a previous commitment by Mr. Ishiba to face opposition in Parliament.

Some voters saw it as a disappointing sign that he had “given in to pressure from within his party” with a dissolution for political purposes, Mr. Uchiyama said.

This weekend, the Prime Minister announced that the PLD would not support certain party members implicated in the party’s financing scandal for the vote.

This announcement reflects Mr. Ishiba’s desire to show the public that he can be “strict”, and he has thus “probably regained a little public trust”, believes Mr. Uchiyama.

Mr. Ishiba, in favor of the creation of a regional military alliance on the NATO model, declared last week that Japan’s security had “never been so threatened since the end of the Second World War”.

Japan, like many industrialized countries, also faces a demographic crisis, with an aging population and a stubbornly low birth rate. According to the World Bank, the country has the oldest population in the world after Monaco.

Mr Ishiba recently called the situation a “silent emergency”, adding that the government would promote measures to support families, such as flexible working hours.

Anxious to “ensure that the Japanese economy emerges from deflation”, he also wants to stimulate income through a new recovery plan and support for local authorities and low-income households.

The Constitutional Democratic Party (PDC, center-left), the main opposition party with 99 deputies, seeks to differentiate itself from the PLD on a series of issues linked to diversity, in particular by committing to legalizing marriages between people of the same sex.

He also wants to allow married couples not to have the same last name, an issue that deeply divides within the PLD.

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