Since Sunday October 6, images of exoduses from northern Gaza have multiplied with a feeling of déjà vu. Carts, motorbikes and more rarely cars saturated with bags flee towards the south of the enclave. Men, women, children carrying baby diapers or water. And this scene, filmed in the Jabalia district: an overloaded lady walks with a group, folded tarpaulin over her head, pink bag emblazoned with Winnie the Pooh on her stomach, another on her back. She calls out to the photographer without even stopping: “Our children are dead. The tanks rolled over us. We are starving.”
Continuing a year marked by incessant population movements, towards supposedly secure areas that are constantly redefined, the Israeli army ordered on Sunday “evacuation” from the entire north of the enclave, from Beit Lahia to Jabalia via Gaza City.
This area, which was at the heart of bombings and ground operations during the first months of the war, before Israeli troops moved south towards Rafah and Khan Younes, is already the most affected by the destruction. More than a million people lived in this area before the war, there remain today a few hundred thousand Gazans, according to estimates.
The order was given by the army through flyers, dropped in certain affected neighborhoods (as evidenced by photos published by various Palestinian channels) or on social networks via its Arabic-speaking spokesperson.
The evacuation order was followed by a ground incursion by Israeli troops into Jabalia, the fourth since October 7, 2023. “The 401st and 460th divisions completed the encirclement of [Jabalia] and forces now continue to operate in the area,” the IDF announced on Sunday, specifying that the operation would continue “as long as necessary”.
The Israeli army speaks of a “new phase of the war”
On a flyer published by various Palestinian channels on Sunday, shortly after the IDF communicator’s first post, the map was accompanied by the following text, that CheckNews had it translated: “To the inhabitants of the northern Gaza Strip. The terrorist organization Hamas deliberately continues to restore its terrorist structure in your areas, in civilian areas, and exploits you. She uses shelters and medical centers as human shields. We are in a new phase of the war, which is why the IDF is issuing a new evacuation map in the northern Gaza Strip, indicated in the attached QR code. Please note, these areas are considered dangerous combat zones. Al-Rashid streets [il est précisé que celle-ci jouxte la mer, ndlr] and Salah-al-Din will be considered humanitarian routes to cross the south. The Israeli army will continue its activity wherever terrorism reigns.”
The Hamas Interior Ministry countered Israeli instructions on Sunday, calling for “citizens of northern Gaza to ignore Israeli threats”, claiming that their “Claims about the presence of safe zones in southern Gaza are lies, because Israel commits crimes and massacres in all areas of the enclave.”
In the second wave of Israeli communication, which we find in various flyer photos distributed on Monday, and on the post on X from the IDF communicator published the same day, the entire area is still highlighted in yellow, but only residents of the northernmost towns (highlighted in red), including Jabalia and Beit Lahia, have explicit orders to“immediately evacuate these areas” towards Al-Mawasi. Note that the Gaza coastal road, Salah-al-Din, identified the day before as an evacuation route, was then removed from the roads “humanitarian” designated by the IDF, without this withdrawal being explained. This is not the first time that the Israeli army has been vague in the contours of its “humanitarian” zones, which have also been targeted by bombings several times.
In a statement released on October 7, 2024, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) declared that “According to the first information available this morning, more than 50,000 people have been displaced in northern Gaza and some patients have left hospitals in the evacuation zone. Many other people in the north, including in Jabalia camp, are stuck in their homes, unable to leave their homes safely. So far, few families have crossed Wadi Gaza heading south.»
The start of a plan already mentioned in different media?
This order “evacuation” massive, very similar to that given by the Israeli army almost a year ago, on October 13, 2023, when 1 million inhabitants of northern Gaza were ordered to flee before the entry of Israeli troops into the enclave .
But it also resonates with various press articles in recent weeks, having reported on the “Eiland plan” (named after the retired major general considered to be at its origin). The latter would consist of evacuating northern Gaza of any civilian population, before besieging and starving the area, cutting off water and food supplies, so as to force the several thousand Hamas fighters who are supposed to find surrender there. On September 17, the Israeli-Palestinian media +972 mentioned this “total liquidation” plan, presenting it as a hypothesis. “which was gaining ground”. A few days later, the American channel CNN and various Israeli media reported on the mention of this plan before the Parliament’s defense committee by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Several commentators saw in the order to evacuate northern Gaza and the ground offensive signs of the activation of this plan. “It’s finally happening, reacted to X Avichay Buaron, one of the 27 Knesset deputies (three of whom are ministers) who publicly supported the Eiland proposal. As we requested, […] The IDF is evacuating the northern Gaza Strip. This is the first phase of the program. It’s being implemented and that’s a good thing.”
The Israeli army has not made any statement to this effect. And there is nothing to confirm, at this stage, that the current operations foreshadow the Eiland scenario.
Updated October 8, 6:40 p.m. : added Ocha reaction
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