here is the typical profile of the winners according to science, and it fits perfectly with the first winners of 2024

NOBEL – You are not born Nobel, you become one. Monday October 7, Victor Ambros and Gary Ruvkun received the Nobel Prize in Medicine for their work on microRNAs. This title goes to them for their revolutionary discovery, of course, but science could (almost) have predicted their triumph. In the same way as that of the two Nobel laureates in physics this Tuesday 8, Geoffrey Hinton and John Hopfield. Because these four researchers tick all the boxes of the typical profile of Nobel Prize winners, defined by a study published on October 3 in Naturee.

The authors of this publication, Kerri Smith and Chris Ryan, both journalists for the British magazine, analyzed the profiles of the 646 winners of scientific prizes (medicine, physics, chemistry) awarded since 1901, knowing that a reward can be shared by three people maximum. The objective: to determine the factors that increase the chances of winning this most prestigious distinction.

To be a man with graying hair

First, the vast majority of winners are men. In the 20th century, only 20 women won a Nobel Prize in science subjects. On this subject, it should be noted that as the world of science has opened up to female researchers in the 21st century, there have been 15 additional laureates since the 2000s. “If you are a woman, the physiology [étude du fonctionnement des différentes parties du corps] or medicine is your best chance to get a prize »write the authors of this publication.

With age comes wisdom, it is said, and the winners mostly have white hair. The average age to be crowned is 58 years old. The oldest winner is John Goodenough, he was rewarded in 2019, at the age of 97, for having developed lithium-ion batteries. Aged 70 and 72 respectively, our two 2024 Nobel Prize winners in medicine fit perfectly into the ideal age category. Like Geoffrey Hinton (76) and John Hopfield (91).

Kerri Smith and Chris Ryan don’t know how to explain it, but they also defined that 54 seems to be a lucky age. In fact, they noted in their data a record 24 winners who were in their 55th year.

The « ideal CV » from the American researcher

Place of residence is another criterion that seems to count for winning a scientific Nobel. More than half of the winners (54%) live in North America. “ And if you were born elsewhere, the best option to get a Nobel Prize has, until now, been to move there », supports the study of Nature. The second option, a little less favorable, is to live in Europe.

The prestige of the university where the scientist works also helps a lot. American universities thus take the lion’s share, first and foremost that of Berkeley, California. The establishment has 38 scientific awards, including 13 in chemistry and 12 in physics, as confirmed by an AFP database built from data collected on the official Nobel website (nobelprize.org).

An American hegemony that still holds true in 2024. Victor Ambros, American biologist at the University of Massachusetts Medical School, and Gary Ruvkun, professor of genetics at Harvard Medical School, once again have the ideal CV to win the holy grail . Same thing with the Nobel Prize winners in physics, the American John Hopfield being a professor at the prestigious American University of Princeton and the British-Canadian Geoffrey Hinton in Toronto, Canada. In 2023, teacher-researchers from American universities appeared in all the winning teams in scientific subjects.

Five overrepresented research areas

The choice of specialty should not be taken lightly either. Five areas of research are over-represented among the awarded researchers: particle physics; cell biology (discipline studied by our 2024 Nobel Prize winners in medicine); atomic physics; neuroscience and molecular chemistry, as you can see in the graph below.

As in all areas, network and heritage also necessarily facilitate success. The signatories of the study Nature relate that John W. Strutt, who won a physics prize in 1904 for his work on the properties of gases, thus gave rise to “228 academic descendants who received a Nobel Prize”. In his « descendants »we count its students and the students of their students.

Like, once again, our first winners of 2024: Victor Ambros and Gary Ruvkun met during their post-doctoral work with Robert Horvitz, himself a Nobel Prize winner in 2002 for his work in genetics.

Lack of diversity

This « academic genealogy » is moreover the most impressive aspect of the research of the authors of the study of Nature. Taking into account the Nobel Prizes in chemistry, physics, medicine and economics since the beginning of the 20th century, Kerri Smith and Chris Ryan have established that “out of 736 researchers, 702 are part of the same academic family, that is to say they are linked by a common academic bond at a given moment in their history. »

Faced with this lack of diversity of laureates, the members of the Nobel committee indicated to Nature that they “continuously work to improve the nomination process, with the aim of expanding nominations in terms of gender, nationality and subjects in the fields of physics, chemistry, physiology or medicine” .

There remains one final quality to become one of the people “who have brought the greatest benefit to humanity” during the year. It’s about patience. Yes, the scientists rewarded in the 2010s waited an average of 29 years between their discovery and their coronation in Oslo. But you shouldn’t delay working on your research either, because no Nobel Prize can be awarded posthumously…

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