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Kais Saied given favorite with 89% of the votes (first estimates)

According to data from the Sigma Conseil institute broadcast on national television, Mr. Saied obtained 89.2% of the votes in the first round, crushing the second candidate, Ayachi Zammel, a liberal industrialist unknown to the general public who did not obtained only 6.9% of the votes. The third, a deputy from the pan-Arab left Zouhair Maghzaoui, 59, won only 3.9% of the votes, according to Sigma.

The electoral authority Isie announced a participation of 27.7% compared to 45% five years ago in the first round. The president of Isie, Farouk Bouasker, judged this rate “respectable”, even though it is the lowest rate for a first round of presidential voting since the overthrow of dictator Ben Ali in 2011 in this country. which was the cradle of the democratic uprisings of the Arab Spring.

Only MM. Zammel and Maghzaoui, second knives according to experts, were authorized to face Mr. Saied, 66, out of initially 17 applicants, dismissed for alleged irregularities. The opposition, whose leading figures are in prison, and Tunisian and foreign NGOs have criticized a distorted vote in favor of Mr. Saied.

Ayachi Zammel has not been able to campaign because he has been imprisoned since the beginning of September and has three sentences of more than 14 years in prison for suspicion of false sponsorships.

Mr. Maghzaoui was considered “a stooge” because he carried a left-wing sovereignist project similar to that of Mr. Saied, whom he supported until recently.

“The legitimacy of the election is necessarily tainted when the candidates who could overshadow Mr. Saied were systematically excluded,” Tunisian political analyst Hatem Nafti commented for AFP, also stressing that “ “This is the worst turnout since 2011.”

The candidate selection process had been highly contested due to the high number of sponsorships required, the imprisonment of known potential candidates, and the ouster by Isie of the president’s strongest rivals including Mondher Zenaidi, a former minister under the Ben Ali regime.

For the French Maghreb expert, Pierre Vermeren, even if with such a strong abstention, “the democratic legitimacy” of this election is “weak”, “Tunisia has a president and the majority of Tunisians let it happen”. He noted analogies with neighboring Algeria, “where no one questions President” Abdelmadjid Tebboune.

After the exit polls were announced, around 400 of the president’s supporters came out to celebrate his victory, waving flags and his photo in front of the municipal theater in the center of Tunis, chanting “the people want Kais again”.

A group sang the national anthem with enthusiasm. Oumayma Dhouib, 25, said she was “very happy with the victory of “Kaisoun”, an affectionate nickname. The young woman assured that she was “convinced by his ideas and his politics”, while her mother Khadija, 52, “trusts” Kais Saied.

A hardening

Mr. Saied, elected in 2019 with nearly 73% of the vote (and 58% participation), was still popular when this constitutional law specialist with the incorruptible image seized full powers in the summer of 2021 , promising order in the face of political instability.

Three years later, many Tunisians criticize him for having devoted too much energy to settling scores with his opponents, in particular the Islamo-conservative Ennahdha party, dominant during the decade of democracy following the overthrow of dictator Ben Ali in 2011.

Since 2021, Tunisian and foreign NGOs and the opposition, whose leading figures have been arrested, have denounced an “authoritarian drift” by Mr. Saied, via a dismantling of checks and balances and a stifling of civil society with arrests of trade unionists. , activists, lawyers and political columnists.

According to Human Rights Watch, “more than 170 people are currently detained for political reasons or for exercising their fundamental rights.”

Hatem Nafti was worried about a hardening of power towards critical voices because KAis Saied will be able to “enforce his coronation to justify the repression”. “Both in his profession of faith and in his only intervention during the campaign (a video speech Thursday evening, editor’s note), Mr. Saied promised to put an end to the +traitors+ and the +enemies of Tunisia+,” underlined Mr. Nafti.

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