The Republican clan goes on the attack | US elections 2024

After several weeks on the defensive, the Republican clan went on the attack.

Earlier this week, Donald Trump visited one of the areas heavily affected by Hurricane Helene. He brought food and asked for help from Elon Musk to improve communications with affected areas. A brief visit accompanied by a very opportunistic criticism: the Biden/Harris administration would be very unresponsive in this folder.

The other major attack is JD Vance’s performance in the vice-presidential debate. He is a more polite and respectful politician than usual who addressed some 43 million Americans who watched his duel with Tim Walz. The ambiguous – even misleading – statements he made seemed to effectively mask many of the more radical ideas he conveys.

A government’s response to the aftermath of a natural disaster can influence the mood of voters. George W. Bush paid a political price after showing little empathy (and delay in releasing aid) to the plight of those affected by Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

This year, two electorally important states were affected by flooding: Georgia and North Carolina. Hundreds of citizens are missing. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris also went to the victims, but a few days after Donald Trump. As if following the Republican.

The running mate debate will perhaps allow some people to forget to what extent JD Vance and Donald Trump can be weird. Weirdthis is the term that Democrat Tim Walz launched this summer to respond to the authoritarian leanings of Republican adversaries. But the insult seems less credible after a debate during which the Democrat admitted to agreeing with his opponent on several points.

JD Vance’s performance may convince some undecided people. People exasperated by the attacks and aggressiveness of Donald Trump, but not convinced by Kamala Harris. Citizens who could say to themselves that the Republican candidates are not not so bad Ultimately.

The real major distinction between the two candidates was only recalled at the end of the debate (on respect for democracy and the electoral process). Very difficult, therefore, to measure its impact. The Democrats quickly got publicity out of it… but will the undecided see it?

But most polls suggest that the race is very close… and that opinions are difficult to influence. Neither the debate between the presidential candidates nor the discovery of a second assassination attempt against Donald Trump have really changed the situation.

Some polls suggest that only one or two percent of Americans wishing to vote remain undecided. Just a few million in a country of more than 330 million people.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, we are trying to make the most of a first October surpriseor the publication of a summary of the evidence collected in connection with the assault on the Capitol. This is evidence amassed by the team of special prosecutor Jack Smith and which specifically concerns the actions taken by Donald Trump on the sidelines of the events of January 6, 2021.

The documents contain several extracts from private conversations between the ex-president and members of his entourage. The courts have not yet considered these statements. They depict a president willing to sow chaos and confusion in an effort to cling to power despite defeat.

New information which, in substance, probably does little to change the opinion of voters.