Once again, La Niña seems determined to attack already very vulnerable African populations. With forecasts of a return of this climatic phenomenon, a real race against time is underway to prevent disasters in several African countries. Enough to support the observation of a recent report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO): “Africa bears an increasingly heavy burden due to climate change and disproportionate costs for essential climate adaptation”.
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According to the recent mid-September 2024 forecast from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is a 60% chance of La Niña conditions developing towards the end of this year. The La Niña phenomenon, characterized by cooling of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific, generally causes above-normal precipitation in some areas and drier conditions in others, unlike El Niño. As WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo explains, “La Niña has a short-term relative cooling impact on global climate and produces opposite climate impacts to El Niño, particularly in tropical regions.»
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According to WMO probabilistic forecasts for the September-November 2024 season, several regions of the world are expected to experience above-normal precipitation with the arrival of La Niña. These include far northern South America, Central America, the Caribbean, the northern Horn of Africa, the Sahel, and parts of Southeast Asia.
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In Africa, the areas most affected by these excess rainfall would be the Northern Horn of Africa, encompassing countries such as Eritrea, Djibouti, Ethiopia and Somalia, as well as the Sahel, covering countries such as Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad. “Forecasts of large-scale precipitation patterns partly correspond to typical impacts observed during early La Niña conditions» underlines the WMO press release.
Fears linked to the arrival of La Niña in Africa are unfortunately not unfounded. Some countries on the continent are already hard hit by excessive rainfall and their disastrous consequences, as evidenced by the situation in Mali. In this Sahelian country, which is among those threatened by the predicted excess rainfall, the floods that occurred even before the onset of La Niña were of such magnitude that the government had to postpone the national school year, initially scheduled for the beginning of October, until 4 November 2024. This decision illustrates the state of emergency in which several of the countries mentioned above will find themselves, already vulnerable to climatic hazards and which risk being severely affected by the new La Niña phenomenon to come.
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Faced with this prospect, reinforced mobilization of governments, humanitarian agencies and donors will be essential to support efforts to prevent, prepare for and respond to natural disasters induced by La Niña. It must be said that these regions have already experienced the effects of La Niña episodes in the recent past, which often resulted in heavy, sometimes torrential rains, leading to floods, landslides and considerable agricultural damage. During the last La Niña period from 2020 to early 2023, some areas of the Sahel and the Horn of Africa experienced excess rainfall of more than 20% compared to seasonal norms, causing devastating floods and crop losses. .
According to current forecasts, the La Niña episode is expected to appear in these African regions from October 2024, with peak intensity expected between December 2024 and February 2025.It is crucial that these areas prepare now to deal with excess rainfall and its potentially disastrous consequences.» alerts the WMO Secretary General.
Beyond the Horn of Africa and the Sahel
Beyond the Horn of Africa and the Sahel, other regions of the maritime continent could also be affected by rains above seasonal norms, such as parts of Southeast Asia.
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Unfortunately, many affected areas are not sufficiently prepared to cope with such excess rainfall. Drainage, flood protection and landslide infrastructure are often inadequate or obsolete. Early warning and disaster management systems remain weak in several countries.
Prevention and adaptation measures are therefore essential, including the strengthening of dikes and drainage systems, the implementation of emergency and evacuation plans, the development of climate-resilient agriculture, as well as the raising public awareness of the risks linked to floods and landslides.
Risks of worsening vulnerabilities
The La Niña phenomenon risks aggravating existing vulnerabilities in areas already weakened by food insecurity, conflicts, poverty and the effects of climate change. “Seasonal forecasts of El Niño and La Niña and their impacts on global climate patterns are an important tool to inform early warnings and upstream actions» recalls Celeste Saulo.
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National weather services will have a crucial role to play in monitoring changing weather conditions, issuing timely warnings and coordinating emergency responses. However, many countries lack adequate resources and means to carry out this mission.
This is why WMO, through its regional climate centers and technical support, will play a key role in supporting adaptation efforts at the local and regional level. “Early Warning for All initiative remains WMO’s top priority» insists the WMO Secretary General.
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