Austria is preparing to experience a crucial political moment this Sunday with legislative elections which could, for the first time in the country’s history, be won by the Freedom Party (FPÖ), a far-right party. led by the radical Herbert Kickl.
The FPÖ, which has already come to power in the past, has never finished first in a national election. Today, galvanized by his victory in the European elections in June, he hopes to transform the attempt, despite uncertainties regarding his future participation in government.
A tight duel with the conservatives
Polls place the FPÖ in the lead with 27% of voting intentions, just ahead of Karl Nehammer’s Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), credited with 25%. Although closely followed by the conservatives, Herbert Kickl remains confident and mobilized his supporters Friday evening in the heart of Vienna. “We must open a new page,” he declared, promising “five good years” to his supporters.
For his part, Karl Nehammer launched a call to vote for “stability” and against “the radicalism” of the FPÖ. From the ÖVP headquarters, he insisted on the need to avoid “chaos”, while hinting that a coalition with the FPÖ could be considered, although nothing is yet certain.
A campaign dominated by crises
During the campaign, Karl Nehammer benefited from his handling of the flooding caused by Storm Boris, which temporarily suspended political debates, allowing him to gain ground. His party also managed to reposition itself as a centrist force, distinguishing itself from the far right of the FPÖ and the left represented by the Social Democrats (SPÖ), credited with 20% of the vote.
The ÖVP, which currently governs in coalition with the Greens, could, according to experts, retain the chancellery. However, the question of with which partners remains open. If the ÖVP and the FPÖ find themselves neck and neck, an alliance between these two forces could be considered, as was the case in 2000 and 2017. However, a landslide victory for the FPÖ would complicate the negotiations, because the ‘ÖVP would refuse to play the role of minority partner within the government.
Herbert Kickl’s controversial program
Herbert Kickl, 55, was able to relaunch the FPÖ after the Ibizagate scandal which had splashed the party. He adopted a populist strategy, sharply criticizing Covid-19 measures, inflation, climate policies and sanctions against Russia. He also relies on Austrian neutrality to justify his positions. Kickl even proposed a policy of “remigration”, planning to strip certain Austrians of foreign origin of their nationality.
Despite the possibility of not governing, a first place for the FPÖ on voting evening would constitute a political “earthquake” in Austria, according to Thomas Hofer, a Viennese analyst. And even while being kept away from power, Herbert Kickl could benefit by continuing to play the anti-elitism card, while fueling divisions within a country plagued by economic difficulties.
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