My dear impertinent ones, dear impertinent ones,
I obviously wanted to wish you a happy new year at the start of the 2025 school year. Perhaps that’s agreed. This may seem like an exercise in outdated, “automatic” and even old-fashioned style for some. However, ultimately, once a year, taking the time to think of others and wish them good things, goodness, health, is important. A bit like a moment of sweetness in a world of brutes!
To wish you a happy new year, I have decided to offer all readers of the site a Strategy file on the war in Ukraine.
You could tell me that in a few days Trump will be the sitting president and will return to the White House, and that the war is already over.
Already finished.
In fact, Trump said he would end the war in 48 hours if he were president.
You know my positions for peace and the need to be a peacemaker and not a sower of death and war.
However, my analyzes lead me to think that Trump will not end the war in 48 hours when he returns to the Oval Office on January 20. On the 22nd it is unlikely that the world will swim in the bliss and happiness of peace found by everyone, starting with the Ukrainian people. This is why I suggest you read this file.
More than 8 months ago I wrote a report on what was, in my opinion, the biggest potential error in current analysis. Believing that war was impossible in Europe and against Russia. In Asia and against China. You can also find a video on the Grenier de l’éco channel on YouTube.
Given the evolution of the situation, the seriousness of the situation itself, I decided to offer this Strategy file to all readers of the insolentiae site and our community who still think and want to think in this world who rushes towards war singing, with flowers in their guns like our elders of 14. They all ended up in the trenches of Verdun like hundreds of thousands of young Russians or Ukrainians currently end up in the trenches of Dombass.
You will also be able to better understand the analytical work that allows me to support my subscribers to the Strategies letter.
They all laughed when we told them that war was possible, they laugh less now!
I remember when I was young (a long time ago my children would say) I read the book by Jean-François Khan entitled “Everything changes because nothing changes: Introduction to a theory of social evolution”. This work was fascinating. “At the heart of this essay, one observation: it is impossible to understand the driving forces behind the evolution of human societies if we focus only on what changes. We must first focus our attention on what does not change, the invariant structures. It is in fact non-change that allows change to radicalize its expression.”
Beyond these explanations which may seem a little complicated, the author asks the question of our perception of changes.
However, what is essential and what is the heart of my work to support you in the VICA (volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous) world that is ours is to understand the changes.
We must be able to differentiate between permanence, our invariances as Jean-François Khan said, and our changes, our evolutions.
Whether these developments are for good or bad is a matter of moral judgment (and fortunately I have my own) but not of factual analysis. I fight with my modest means against the place that I consider to be deadly of screens in our lives. However, this place induces incredibly powerful changes (even to the point of people's sexuality collapsing). My personal judgment here has no importance or effect on the changes that are taking place in society and this is imposed on me whether I am for or against.
It is fundamental in our work of analysis and understanding therefore to clearly distinguish what is our judgment (perfectly normal and legitimate) from what is the facts and their consequences and therefore societal or even financial impacts for example.
A major change hidden beneath our invariances.
Why tell you about this work?
Because that's what I thought of when I realized that we were perhaps, without doubt, missing out on a major and capital change that has been very little commented on, very little disseminated to the general public, even if on the military side, obviously, all the plans have been redone and the doctrines for the use of nuclear force modified.
We start from the principle, the postulate, the axiom, the evidence that a nuclear war is impossible and that therefore the 3th World war is not an option, except in the minds of paranoid pessimists.
I think that behind this invariance of the “it’s impossible” reasoning lies a change that almost no one has seen, and that almost everyone does not want to see because it is so “scary”.
If nuclear war is considered impossible, it is because it would lead to AMD…. Mutual destruction assured. We would all die, it would be a collective suicide, and no one would have any interest in it, so it is impossible to get to that point because at the last moment rationality and the survival instinct will take over.
It is clear that during these entire decades of the Cold War, things generally happened like this.
We have become accustomed to the fear of this mutual destruction prevailing over our warlike ambitions, over our tensions, over our hatreds or over our violence.
The atomic weapon has become a guarantee of peace and this fear of mutually assured destruction has become a deterrent.
Let's imagine that the situation has changed.
Suppose many believe that a nuclear war can be won?
Let's even imagine that some people think that a nuclear war would not have as many environmental disadvantages as we might have believed until now.
Let's imagine, to go further, that some would even see a very favorable benefit/risk both for the future and for the environment.
So this major change in reasoning would make possible the use of atomic weapons and therefore the 3th World War.
Macron and the refusal of Russian victory in Ukraine implies war.
Emmanuel Macron said this with immense clarity at the same time as he explained that we should not rule out sending ground troops to Ukraine to confront the Russian army.
“Russia cannot, and must not, win this war in Ukraine. We are ensuring our collective security” is exactly what he said.
No one wants to really analyze what that entails.
What that really means.
We can blame Macron for everything, and I do not deny it, we can say that it is a very bad idea and that we do not want to die for kyiv and for “Zizilenski” the man who played the piano not standing but with his bistouquette (this is how he made himself known), but we cannot blame Macron for not displaying his intentions, however dramatic they may be.
After 2 years of war and frozen positions, while the Ukrainian army is wavering, if we do not want Russia to lose, but Ukraine can no longer hold out, what do you think will happen? ?
This is the only and real question that no one dared to ask and that Macron began to illustrate with his sending of troops to Ukraine.
If we don't want Russia to win in Ukraine, but Ukraine can no longer hold out, what will happen?
Simple.
Either we accept Ukraine's defeat, or we go to war alongside it before it collapses.
It will then be the 3rd World War.
As you can hear and see, Macron does not at all rule out having to fight World War III.
If he doesn't exclude her, it's because one way or another he thinks he can win her and get out of it.
He thinks the benefit/risk is favorable.
To read more, download this 38-page file for free here, which 8 months ago allowed you to already anticipate what is starting to happen before your eyes, click here.
For those who want to go further and benefit from all of these analyses, these anticipations and the resulting wealth strategies, you can subscribe by clicking here. You will have access to all the archives and the next 12 months of publication.
To access your latest file posted online “Downgrade of French bank ratings. How to prepare for the return of banking risk? it's here in your readers' spaces.
Those who want to subscribe will find all the information here and will also have access to all the files already published.
Otherwise, apart from that, I wish you a happy new year 2025. Always hope for the best, and let's not be naive about the rest!
It's already too late, but all is not lost.
Get ready!
Charles SANNAT
“Insolentiae” means “impertinence” in Latin
To write to me [email protected]
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You can also subscribe to my monthly letter “STRATEGIES” which will allow you to go further and in which I share with you the concrete solutions to implement to prepare you for the world after. These solutions are structured around the PEL approach – heritage, employment, location. The idea is to share with you the means and methods to build your personal and family resilience.
“By wanting to stifle peaceful revolutions, we make violent revolutions inevitable” (JFK)
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