No, the year 2025 will not be the year of great world peace. If we can hope for the end of the war in Ukraine, other conflicts are likely to continue elsewhere on the planet, on all continents. Overview in five steps.
Published at 7:00 a.m.
Americas
In Mexico, criminal groups continue to compete for control of drug trafficking, in particular the CJNG (Jalisco New Generation Cartel), rival of the Sinaloa Cartel, which continues to expand in a context of great violence. President Claudia Sheinbaum risks adding fuel to the fire with her security strategy. But does she have a choice, knowing that Donald Trump is threatening to increase customs duties by 25% if Mexico fails to curb drug trafficking to the United States? Other violence is expected in Colombia, where the peace process between the militias and the government remains compromised by drug trafficking and the political flammability of neighboring countries, Ecuador and Venezuela.
Europe
PHOTO ARCHIVES AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
President Volodymyr Zelensky pays tribute to the graves of fallen Ukrainian soldiers at the Champ de Mars Lychakiv cemetery in Lviv on December 17.
In 2025, Ukraine will be suspended from Donald Trump’s decisions. If the latter puts an end to American arms deliveries, Kyiv could be forced to negotiate. But under what conditions? Moscow openly aims to conquer four Ukrainian regions. What would Zelensky concede, to ensure that Putin does not seek to conquer the rest of the country? In the absence of an agreement, the Russian army will continue to gain ground, or even more, while the Ukrainian army is at a disadvantage in terms of manpower and equipment. For its part, the European Union is continuing its rearmament in the face of a hostile Putin, and promises to open discussions on Ukraine’s possible accession to its federation.
Africa
PHOTO AMAURY FALT-BROWN, ARCHIVES AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Soldiers of the Sudanese Armed Forces patrol Bahri, a sister city of the capital Khartoum, on November 3.
The war in Sudan is at a crossroads, after almost two years of conflict which has left tens of thousands dead. Although the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have gained ground against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), prospects for peace remain slim, with foreign arms shipments (notably from the United Arab Emirates to the RSF) and emergence of new armed groups favoring the escalation of the conflict. We will also follow the hostilities in the Sahel (Mali and Burkina Faso in particular), where Islamist groups continue to harass government forces, and the delicate situation in Congo, where tensions remain high with neighboring Rwanda in the North Kivu region.
Middle East
PHOTO ARCHIVES AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, surrounded by members of the IDF, at the summit of Mount Hermon, on the Golan Heights, Syrian territory annexed by Israel, on December 17.
Fourteen months of fighting on multiple fronts have allowed Israel to dramatically shift the geopolitical balance in the Middle East. Will this new strategic reality transform into lasting peace in the region? That is the question. Hamas and Hezbollah have been weakened by IDF shelling. The recent overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria has finally dismantled the “Axis of Resistance” supported by Iran, whose deterrent force also seems diminished. But hostility towards Israel has also increased tenfold in the region, and it is hard to imagine the guns falling completely silent, in a context where Donald Trump risks supporting the Jewish state without reservation.
Asia
PHOTO BANARAS KHAN, ARCHIVES AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Members of the security forces inspect the platform of Balochistan’s main train station, where an attack claimed by separatists left 26 dead, including 14 soldiers, on November 9.
As the United States and China continue their trade war, we can expect real conflicts to continue on the Asian continent. In Burma (Myanmar), where the civil war has been going on since 2021, rebel groups risk continuing their advance towards the capital, which would encourage the opening of new fronts in the country. In Pakistan, we will undoubtedly hear again about the separatists of Balochistan, who carried out shock actions in 2024, as well as the militants of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). These disruptive elements with transnational ramifications (Afghanistan, Iran), coupled with growing political tensions in Islamabad, could make Pakistan a hotbed of violence to follow this year.
