December 10, 2023. Javier Milei takes the reins of an economically exhausted Argentina. Armed with his chainsaw, he promises to shred public accounts to give the country a little breathing room. Word kept a year later, with a drop in public spending of 33% and more than 30,000 jobs eliminated. For what result? Inflation has fallen from 25% per month to 2.7% in December 2024, the IMF forecasts growth of 5% for the coming year, and the country records budget surpluses every quarter. But 53% of the population lives below the poverty line, compared to 42% before the serial killer of civil servants came to power.
If we except this “small detail” of four million additional poor people, there are still some good macroeconomic figures. Enough to draw laudatory portraits internationally. While in France, the public debt and the deficit are experiencing a terrible slide, could certain French politicians take inspiration from the chainsaw of the Pampas?
A classic liberal populism
The Milei current is already present in the United States, with Elon Musk appointed minister of efficiency and in open war against public administration. “The rhetoric of the Argentine president is nothing new in liberal populism,” believes Alexandre Eyries, teacher-researcher specializing in political communication at the Catholic University of the West. With a well-known refrain: “The actors in power are corrupt and rely on a huge public administration at their behest to establish their domination. We must therefore kill these officials to free the people. »
Such action is presented as doubly beneficial since this populism is also based on the idea of redistribution. “If the money does not go to the public, it will go into the pockets of employees. But obviously, the economic reality is more complex,” says the expert.
Last October again, Valérie Pécresse, LR candidate in the last presidential election, pleaded on RMC for “an ax committee. » The rest of his remarks had nothing to envy of pure Javier Milei: “We must take an ax and cut all these codes into small pieces, to eliminate all these agencies which dismember the State. »
Can French politicians be liberal?
If French politics does not lack populism, “it is not very liberal. This word retains a very negative connotation in the country,” explains Philippe Crevel, economist and director of the Cercle des Epargnants. The National Rally? “Their economic program is rather socializing, especially compared to Milei.” The right? “More conservative than liberal.” The presidential camp? “That of magic money and Whatever it takes”, not really Milei-compatible policies. And the left was naturally automatically excluded from this questionnaire.
The economist continues: “On form and speech, Javier Milei can inspire, like Donald Trump. But basically, the French population is rather in favor of public spending.” Certainly, in the 1980s, Margaret Tatcher and Ronald Reagan “gave rise to some liberal impulses among our politicians, but very short-lived. » Even today, the State accounts for 65% of GDP in France, compared to 37.8% in Argentina in 2023, even before Javei Milei puts on his lumberjack apron. And in May 2024, Marine Le Pen, present in Spain with other far-right leaders – including the Latin American chainsaw -, indicated “having serious differences” with her policy.
Contrary to the values of the French right
Especially since Milei-lism cannot be reduced to economic liberalism. “He is an anarcho-liberal,” explains Jonathan Marie, professor of economics at the Institute of Advanced Studies of Latin America at Sorbonne-Nouvelle University. He not only wants to liberalize the economy, but also completely destroy the State. In this sense, he differs from Trump who certainly wants less administration, but establishes protectionism and a state that remains strong. »
However, such a philosophy has little chance of arriving in France: “It would be a major reversal among the Gaullist right,” Jonathan Marie would be surprised.
The previous Menem
Last limit to the importation of Milei-ism in France, and not the least: its relative “success” is perhaps only ephemeral. In the 1990s, Argentina, once again in a situation of hyperinflation, had already put an ultraliberal president, Carlos Menem, in power. Arriving in 1989, “he experienced macro-economic successes in his first years, and saw himself praised internationally, like Javier Milei currently,” explains Jonathan Marie.
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But the initial success quickly faded: “Argentinian ultra-liberalism certainly stabilizes the internal situation, notably inflation, but makes the overall economic situation even more irregular, reinforces inequalities, and destroys the local economy. The country experienced an even greater crisis in the late 1990s, and Carlos Menem was no longer cited as an example. »
