Israel, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey and the Mediterranean form Syria’s borders. When this crossroads is threatened, the entire region is shaken, and even beyond. The Americans also have a so-called observation base in Syrian territory. The Russians operate a naval base there. To the south, the Israelis conquered the Golan Heights, which are a water castle. In the north, the Kurds have carved out a few enclaves. To complicate matters, Syria is approximately 10% Christian, 12% Shia and 78% Sunni. Jihadists in Syria want to bring down the government of Bashar al-Assad. They upset the interests of many countries, like dogs in a game of bowling. Only Turkey seems to be happy about it.
1) Who are the jihadists fighting in Syria?
Jihadists are fighters who violently wage what they believe to be a holy war whose aim is to defend or propagate Islam. In Syria, several jihadist groups have gone to war. In the north, some are supported by Turkey, others derive from Al-Qaeda. The Islamic State has just risen from its ashes and has begun to reconquer the east of the country.
2) What are the riches of Syria?
Syria is one of the poorest countries in the world. More than 80% of its 24 million inhabitants live below the poverty line. Syria’s GNP is just US$62 billion, placing it at 114e world rank. The country has some oil and phosphorus mines. Its main industries are in the food industry, textiles and automobile assembly.
3) Can Bashar al-Assad fall?
Syria’s GNP per capita has declined in recent years. Syrian army soldiers are poorly paid and poorly trained. Syria’s two major allies, Iran and Russia, can no longer support the Syrian army as before. It is especially Christians and the richest section of the population who have an interest in supporting President al-Assad because the arrival of Islamists in power directly threatens their rights and their wealth. Al-Assad’s days seem numbered.
4) What are the interests of neighboring countries?
Erdogan’s Turkey, which is waging a near-genocidal struggle against the Kurds on its territory, is happy that the Kurds are weakened outside its borders. Previously, Turkey helped the Islamic State receive weapons. On the contrary, Kurdish fighters fought against the Islamic State. Israel has no interest in Islamists reaching its border. The Iranians do not want Muslims as fanatical as them, but of another persuasion, to take power. The Iranian government is smuggling weapons for Hamas and Hezbollah through Syria. Lebanon and Jordan do not want a new state controlled by religious fanatics. Finally, countries around the Mediterranean fear that jihadists will have direct access to this sea.
5) What will Russia and the United States do?
It is doubtful that Donald Trump has any interest in Syria, although he should fear the rise of Islamism in the region. As for Russia, it is too weakened to act decisively in this new war in Syria.
