Michel Barnier gone, the French political crisis continues

“I liked the way you gave me not lessons but teachings, even if it only lasted eight months. » In September, Michel Barnier launched this arrow at his predecessor Gabriel Attal during the transfer of power in front of Matignon, the residence of the French prime ministers.

This sentence, thrown out in a joking tone, has not aged very well. Michel Barnier himself only lasted a little over three months as head of the French government.

It is true that his position was fragile from the start. After the early legislative elections in the summer, no clear majority had emerged in the National Assembly. The alliance of left-wing parties came first, followed by the coalition of parties supporting President Macron and, finally, the National Rally led by Marine Le Pen.

Added to this were the Prime Minister’s legitimacy problems. Emmanuel Macron chose Michel Barnier, a politician from the traditional right-wing Les Républicains party, a party which only obtained 5% support in July.

If the president chose him rather than the candidate proposed by the left-wing coalition which came first in the elections, it is among other things because he judged Michel Barnier less likely to be quickly overthrown by the National Assembly.

Supported by centrist forces and the traditional right, Michel Barnier’s mission was therefore to negotiate piecemeal support when presenting bills. This mission had to be worthy of this former European Brexit negotiator.

However, who to talk to and how far to go in negotiations? These questions monopolized Michel Barnier’s short mandate at Matignon.

The left criticized the Prime Minister for having ignored it and for having preferred to address the far right in discussions about budgetary measures.

In recent days, Michel Barnier has actually responded to certain requests from Marine Le Pen related to purchasing power, for example by not increasing the tax on electricity. However, citing France’s difficult economic situation, the prime minister did not give in to all the demands of the National Rally, which ultimately decided to overthrow him.

Result: for the first time since 1962, the French government was defeated by a motion of censure.

A sequel that is very difficult to predict

A few minutes after returning from Saudi Arabia, where he was on an official visit, President Macron learned that he had to begin the search for a new prime minister.

In fact, rumors about potential candidates had already started circulating even before the fall of the government. According to several French media, the president, who had procrastinated for weeks between the legislative elections and the appointment of Michel Barnier, intends to act quickly this time.

Will Emmanuel Macron repeat the experience of a prime minister from the right? Will he choose a candidate from his own camp or will he respond to the demands of the left-wing parties, who claim to have the legitimacy to lead the country?

Regardless of the personality who will be chosen to lead the next government, the mission promises to be just as complicated. The National Assembly remains divided into three distinct blocs from which no majority emerges and this political portrait will not be able to change for a few months since the triggering of new legislative elections is not possible before next summer.

What is the solution, then, to break the impasse? For La France insoumise, a party of the radical left, the answer is clear: the resignation of Emmanuel Macron. After the announcement of the results of the motion of censure, one of the spokespersons of this party did not fail to recall the recent publication of a survey by the Elabe firm which showed that 63% of French people were in favor of such a vote. resignation in the event of the fall of the government.

At the National Rally, the call is a little less direct, but there is little doubt about the desire for an early presidential election.

When there is a serious political crisis, the President of the Republic has three possibilities: reshuffle, dissolution and resignation.Marine Le Pen recently declared, recalling that the first two options had been exhausted. An early vote would be good news for the National Rally candidate, whose eligibility could be called into question due to a trial on an embezzlement case, the verdict of which will be known in March.

From political fictionreplied Emmanuel Macron to calls calling for his departure from the Élysée. Re-elected in April 2022 for a second term, the president will officially be in office until 2027.

One thing is certain, the last years of the five-year term promise to be eventful with a possible dissolution of the Assembly from the summer and, between now and then, the appointment of a new prime minister, the fourth in two and a half years.

In the coming days, another transfer of power ceremony is to be expected in front of the Matignon hotel. This time, Michel Barnier will perhaps refrain from joking about the length of prime ministerial mandates, which have become too unpredictable in any case.