Marco Rubio: What his nomination by Donald Trump could mean for Africa

In recent years, Africa has not been high on the U.S. agenda, and analysts believe that is unlikely to improve with the appointment of Marco Rubio as secretary of state.

When Donald Trump officially becomes president of the United States on January 20, Rubio will become his top diplomat – barring a shock during the Senate confirmation proceedings.

Rubio is known for being a U.S. foreign policy hawk, meaning he favors an aggressive approach to achieving U.S. goals. He has very tough positions towards China, Russia and Iran.

Although the Florida senator has not spoken out much on African issues, Rubio's views on countries he considers friends and foes could be crucial in guiding the Trump administration's approach to -vis of Africa over the next four years.

According to William Linder, managing director of 14North Strategies, a business consulting firm focused on Africa, African issues are unlikely to get the attention of the White House.

“Rubio does not have the reputation of being a specialist on Africa, nor of being particularly interested in African issues,” he said.

“Africa will not be a priority for Rubio and for the next Trump administration.

In line with Donald Trump's “America first” policy, Marco Rubio is likely to keep all US foreign aid closely tied to US interests – meaning “containment and competition with China, as well as access to strategic and critical minerals, will always be part of the US calculus,” said Dr Alex Vines, head of the Africa program at Chatham House, a London-based think tank.

The relationship between the United States and Africa will be “essentially transactional,” he added.

For example, Rubio was among the small group of Republicans who voted against the $6 billion military aid package to Ukraine earlier this year. He said the United States was financing a “no-win war” between Russia and Ukraine.

The US government ended up approving the entire $6 billion package.

Several African countries, such as South Sudan, Nigeria, Kenya and Egypt, currently receive hundreds of millions of dollars in U.S. aid each year. Ethiopia receives one of the largest amounts.

But last year, the United Nations World Food Program and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) suspended all food aid to Ethiopia from June to November, after finding evidence that officials and military stole humanitarian supplies.

Rubio has previously criticized the Ethiopian government for its human rights record, urging Addis Ababa in August to release jailed political prisoners, including journalist Eskinder Nega.

During his first term, Mr. Trump proposed slashing overseas spending, including halving U.S. contributions to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria.

These cuts were ultimately rejected by Congress.

But Amaka Anku, head of Africa at the Eurasia Group think tank, said she did not think the Trump administration would cut U.S. foreign aid to Africa.

“There might be a lot of rhetoric about cutting foreign aid, but I don’t really see that,” she said.

“Foreign aid is such a small part of their budget that it doesn't really seem worth it to me. »

Marco Rubio called China “the most important and advanced adversary America has ever faced.”

Hostile rivalry could prove difficult for African countries, as China has forged deep political and economic ties with the continent. Most African countries want to maintain good relations with both the United States and China, in order to avoid conflict with either country.

Rubio's policies will likely be very similar to those of Mike Pompeo, Trump's secretary of state during his first term, Anku said, adding that the United States will “expand its anti-China strategy in Africa.”

In October, Rubio criticized South Africa's demand that Taiwan move its representative office in the country from the capital Pretoria to Johannesburg, and said it was making “a grave mistake in giving in to Beijing's demands.”

In 2023, Rubia said on social media platform continent and lead to crushing debt.

« The [Parti communiste chinois] disguises its insidious efforts under the name of diplomacy,” he added.

He has also been an outspoken critic of BRICS, the economic alliance of major developing countries, which now includes South Africa, Ethiopia and Egypt.

Earlier this year, he said the alliance was created by Russian President Vladimir Putin “with the obvious aim of ousting the United States from its position as world leader” and was now “effectively controlled by Beijing.

“What should keep the United States military engaged in Africa is growing competition with China and Russia,” William Linder said. This means that the United States will continue to support its close partners, such as Kenya, but may reduce its participation in other areas.

It is not yet clear how the new administration will address existing programs related to counterterrorism, but “it is a safe bet to see an intensification of American engagement,” Mr. Linder said.

“As for the pro-Russian Alliance of Sahel States (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), the United States would probably be even less inclined to provide aid,” he added.

Alex Vines also said it was unclear how involved the United States would remain in Africa, where it has already been an important partner with national armed forces in countries like Somalia.

“During his first administration, Trump significantly reduced the United States' security engagement in Somalia,” Vines said.

Mr. Vines added that he expected only “lesser officials from the Trump administration” to visit the continent.

Mr. Rubio has previously criticized African countries seeking military support from America's adversaries.

In August 2022, he wrote to President Joe Biden urging him to impose sanctions on Algeria for purchasing Russian-made weapons.

“Russia is Algeria’s largest military supplier,” he wrote. “Yet the sanctions available to you have not yet been used.”

In 2019, he urged the United Nations to investigate the deaths of three Russian journalists in the Central African Republic who he said were working on a documentary about the Wagner Group, a private military company linked to the Kremlin.

Rubio was also a vocal supporter of the U.S.-led NATO intervention in Libya in 2011, which led to the fall of Muammar Gaddafi, the country's longtime leader.

Overall, U.S. policy toward Africa is unlikely to see any significant changes, Amaka Anku said, and that ongoing social and military programs will continue as before.

However, there could be diplomatic changes, she added.

“I think diplomatic relations will deteriorate slightly, because they will not prioritize high-level visits to the continent,” she said.

“There will be careless offhand remarks as there have been [pendant le mandat précédent de Trump]and that's fine – it's mostly about tonal shifts. But fundamentally, we don't see many changes. »