Jordan Bardella’s party is close to an absolute majority

Jordan Bardella’s party is close to an absolute majority
Jordan Bardella’s party is close to an absolute majority

Overmobilized voters and a country that holds its breath. One week before a decisive election on all levels, whether it be the economy, national cohesion or France’s place in Europe and the world, our Elabe survey for BFMTV and La Tribune Sunday highlights the intense deliberation that takes place within society. Today, one in six citizens say they are certain to go and vote next Sunday. Participation could even reach 62 to 64% according to our partner’s projections. This would be a record for legislative elections since 2002. These elections were of considerable importance since they were organized a month and a half after the thunderclap » of April 21, the elimination of Lionel Jospin on the evening of the first round of the presidential election, in favor of Jean-Marie Le Pen.

The voters of 2024 visibly place at a comparable level of political intensity the surprise dissolution announced by Emmanuel Macron on the evening of June 9 in the hope of causing an electric shock after the large victory of the National Rally in the European elections. If this mobilization is confirmed, this means that the majority which wins, whatever it may be, will have real legitimacy. », remarks Bernard Sananès, president of the Elabe Institute. The services of the Ministry of the Interior have already counted more than a million proxies, a figure six times higher than that of the last legislative elections in 2022.

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And the sky darkens even more for the head of state. In our survey carried out between Wednesday and Friday on the real offer, after the closing of the submission of applications in the prefectures, the current majority is still in third place in voting intentions (20%), behind the RN (36%) and the New Popular Front (27%). We can clearly see that there are two dynamics which are, as always in a majority vote, the dynamics of alliance, observes Bernard Sananès. On the RN side, the alliance with Éric Ciotti works well because it does not lead to a loss of votes. And it’s the same thing for the left alliance. These two blocks benefit from progression and Macronie seems quite isolated. »

Jordan Bardella’s renunciations

From this balance of forces, Elabe established a projection in seats, to be taken of course with a distance until the first round has taken place. The National Rally and its allies would obtain between 250 and 280 deputies, the New Popular Front and the various left between 150 and 170, Together between 90 and 110 and LR and the various right and center, between 35 and 45. Which would bode well at a minimum of a solid relative majority », in the words of the president of the polling institute, for the party of Jordan Bardella. The newly re-elected MEP emphasized this week his refusal to settle in Matignon in such a case: I say to the French, to try us, we need an absolute majority. » 58% of respondents approve, starting with his voters (87%).

The days that have just passed have also been marked by renunciations of the contender for Matignon who prunes his program as voting day approaches. This does not undermine the determination of his voters. If for a large majority of French people, the economic programs of the parties are not credible, they still give more credibility to that of the National Rally (36%) than to that of the current majority (33%)! When voters want to shake things up, expertise is no longer a bulwark »underlines Bernard Sananès.

We also questioned the French on the issues that will determine their vote. Purchasing power, security and immigration come first. Or the subjects put forward by the National Rally and supported in terms of security by a tragic news item: the anti-Semitic rape of a young girl in Courbevoie eight days ago. Sovereign subjects and purchasing power are themes with which the RN has shown proximity. When the government says: “Look at everything we have done”, the voters respond: “Look how much we suffer”, as for the left, until a few days ago, it put little emphasis on social issues “, continues Bernard Sananès.

A subject which will be at the heart of the two debates organized this week, on TF1 Tuesday and on France 2 Thursday. The two figures who will embody the left, Manuel Bompard (LFI) then Olivier Faure (PS), facing Jordan Bardella and Gabriel Attal, must have the last lesson of our study in mind. One week before the election, the prospect of a victory for the New Popular Front worries slightly more French people (53%) than that of the National Rally (50%).

*Survey carried out online from June 19 to 21, 2024 with a sample of 2,002 people, representative of residents of mainland France aged 18 and over, including 1,870 registered on the electoral lists using the quota method. For voting intention questions, only people registered on the electoral roll and intending to vote are taken into account. Infographic produced by Camille Chauvin for La Tribune Dimanche. Margin of error between 1.0 and 2.6 percentage points.

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