This text is the response to questions from two readers sent to the American Election Courier team. To subscribe, click here.
What will happen if Trump loses his election? What will be the impact of his defeat on him and his supporters?
In the event of Trump’s defeat, he will be furious and lashing out. Are there any fears about a possible civil war between the two clans? Do Democrats have a plan to counter Trump’s post-election fury if he loses?
If the result of the American presidential election is “the slightest bit close”, it would be “extremely surprising if Trump correctly recognized his defeat”, immediately launches Rafael Jacob, associate researcher at the Raoul-Dandurand Chair.
A theory shared by David Grondin, member of the Center for International Studies and Research at the University of Montreal. He explains that “the tighter it is, the more risk there is of overflow”. We can think of those that occurred on January 6, 2021 when supporters of Donald Trump stormed the American Congress.
The potential transfer of power between Joe Biden and Kamala Harris would go better than the transfer of the White House from Donald Trump to Joe Biden, because the two Democrats “would organize themselves to enforce the law,” adds Mr. Grondin. Furthermore, unlike in 2021, police forces and secret services “must already be prepared to deal with something similar,” he believes.
For Rafael Jacob, even if “there is just one side that has gone as far as what we had in January 2021, and that is the Trump side”, there is still a theoretical risk of revolt for the two camps. “Are there people who have a knife between their teeth on both sides? The answer is yes. And is there a risk of political violence that one or the other wins? As far as the answer is concerned, it is categorically yes, there is a risk,” says Mr. Jacob, specifying that “the risk is more acute with Trump”.
A civil war?
Concerning the possibility that this discontent evolves into civil war between the two camps, Christophe Cloutier-Roy, deputy director of the Observatory on the United States of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair, explains that it would not be a conflict between States, as during the Civil War, but rather “an era marked by occasional political violence taking the form of attacks or other acts of violence perpetrated by extremist organizations or “lone wolves””.
The political scientist also notes that “this violence is already present, as evidenced by the shootings motivated by racial hatred, the events of January 6, 2021 or the recent assassination attempts against Trump”. “A defeat for Trump followed by his refusal to recognize the results could unfortunately further inflame the situation,” he adds.
According to David Grondin, even if a civil war between the two camps “is possible in the hypothesis”, this is not realistic, because “there would have to be a much stronger and more widespread organizational movement than what we see at the moment.
A Republican Party without Trump?
In addition to the non-recognition of the result of the election, a defeat for Donald Trump would also bring changes within the Republican Party, which “will be faced with a very uncertain future”, indicates Christophe Cloutier-Roy. The candidate for the White House has already expressed that he does not want to try his luck in the 2028 presidential election if he does not win this election – and he will have to continue to face justice, he recalls.
After losing many traditional supports, “particularly among white women and educated voters, the party will have to see if it can count sustainably on the new voters that Trump has brought in over the last 10 years, but whose support for party was essentially guided by their enthusiasm for Trump,” he emphasizes.
Moreover, “we can expect deep divisions within the party between those who wish to take up the Trumpist mantle [comme J.D. Vance et Ted Cruz] and those who will seek to restore the Republican Party before Trump,” says the expert.
Rafael Jacob hopes for his part that a possible departure of Donald Trump from political life would lead to a “certain return to normal” in terms of the transfer of power and recognition of electoral results.
