Is this a turning point in the war launched by Russia in 2022? In recent days, worrying information for Ukraine has been coming from the front. Several units retreat and the Russian army has conquered large swaths of territory. “Significant Russian gains in the Vuhledar and Selydove regions were noted, with Russian forces breaking through Ukrainian lines and raising the flag at Bohoyavlenka, 9 kilometers northwest of Vuhledar,” wrote Ukraine Control Map on Sunday. X, an account that produces frontline maps.
Vuhledar is a village which held out against Russian attacks for a very long time but which was conquered at the beginning of October. It formed the strategic junction between the eastern and southern fronts. Selydove is a small town located 40 km north of Vuhledar and which protects the south of the strategic town of Pokrovsk, which the Russians have been seeking to reach since the beginning of the year. These gains in these two regions of the front seriously threaten the Ukrainian army.
“These are not normal movements”
« To be clear for anyone just shrugging their shoulders, these are not normal movements. Ukrainian forces are in disarray and Russia now has a very good chance of capitalizing on these efforts and conquering significant areas », insists Ukraine Control Map. Especially since these Russian advances are also observed further north, towards Chasiv Yar or Koupiansk.
The Russian army has thus advanced 478 km² into Ukrainian territory since the beginning of October, its largest territorial gain over a month since March 2022 and the first weeks of the war, according to an analysis by the AFP Monday using data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). By October 27, Russian forces had gained more ground than during the months of August and September (477 and 459 km²), already marked by significant movements of the front line, particularly in the east of the country. Ukraine around the town of Pokrovsk.
« One wonders what is the Ukrainian defensive strategy in the southwest quadrant of Donetsk? », wondered already on Saturday Manette Escortert, an observer of the conflict on X, while the Russians had conquered 20 km² the day before. “ I note (with seriousness) that Russian units have regained freedom of maneuver on land. It is enough to see the ease of this mechanized movement which encounters very little resistance on a road which we are surprised is neither mined nor shelled », he adds.
“Largely insufficient” defenses
« In southeastern Ukraine, the Russian army has made unusually large advances in recent days “, also notes Clément Molin, from the think tank Atum Mundi, Sunday on X. ” The last days show that the Russian objective is to advance towards the west of the city of Kurakhove (between Vuhledar and Selydove) to continue the usual technique: threatening encirclement to push the Ukrainian withdrawalhe writes. The fall of the “strong castle” of Voulhedar more than a month ago will have led to a collapse of the entire southeastern front between Voulhedar and Velika Novosilka », a few kilometers to the west.
« For the Ukrainian command, it is a dismal failure to prepare lines of withdrawal. The defenses are largely insufficient, minefields are few and anti-tank ditches are absent, in an area where they would be useful.continues to observe this cartographer of the fortification lines. Further north, it is a real boulevard which opens towards the west of Kourakhove. »
« If the Ukrainian army wants to protect the approach to the Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts, therefore the southern front of the country, and it wants to protect Pokrovsk from a bypass from the south and west, it must urgently build new coherent lines (on rivers) and complete », adds Clément Molin.
“On the verge of breaking”
A point of view also shared by Stéphane Audrand, international risks consultant and long-time observer of this war. “ The news continues to be bad… I sincerely hope that the Ukrainian command considers that it is waging a retrograde fight before a new stop line, but I doubt ithe worries. The Ukrainian army in several places on the front seems on the verge of collapse and reserves are lacking. So either they are up to something (unlikely), or the breaking point is near. »
For Macette Escortert, the solution is twofold: Ukraine must trigger a general mobilization of its population to replenish the ranks of its army, and the West must open wide the doors of its arsenals to provide all the necessary equipment. “ The problem of the masses can no longer be avoided and it must affect all age groups and social classes. “, he says. Ukraine had difficulty agreeing to lower the age of mobilization from 27 to 25 years old in the spring, but the average age of the Ukrainian soldier would still be 45 years old today. Ukraine has not seemed this close to losing the war since the Russian offensive on kyiv was halted in April 2022.
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