Lithuania: The center left on the verge of winning in the legislative elections

Lithuania’s center-left opposition is expected to defeat the conservatives in Sunday’s parliamentary elections, after a campaign dominated by concerns over the rising cost of living and social inequality.

The Social Democratic Party came first with a total of 50 seats out of 141 in parliament and is now hoping to form a coalition, partial results show. “The election results showed that the Lithuanian people want change, that they need a completely different government,” said Vilija Blinkeviciute, leader of the Social Democrats.

The Social Democrats, who won the largest number of seats in the first round of voting 15 days ago, are preparing to replace the ruling Conservatives, a change which analysts say is unlikely to change support to Ukraine brought by this NATO and EU member country.

1.64% of GDP for Ukraine

This Baltic state of 2.8 million inhabitants watches neighboring Russia warily, fearing it could be its next target if Moscow wins its war against Ukraine.

During the election campaign, all major Lithuanian parties agreed on the need to strongly support Ukraine and maintain or even increase the defense budget, which amounts to around 3% of GDP, beyond of the 2% objective set for members of the Atlantic Alliance.

“The disputes in this election were over domestic policy issues, but when it comes to foreign policy we see almost no difference” between the parties, political analyst Rima Urbonaite told AFP.

According to the Germany-based Kiel Institute, Lithuania ranks among the top three countries in the world in terms of the percentage of Gross Domestic Product spent on aid to Ukraine, with a rate of 1.64%. In terms of defense, Vilnius is spending 3.2% of its GDP on defense this year, well above the NATO target of 2%.

Increase pensions

The Social Democratic Party, which led the government from 2012 to 2016, is banking on a coalition with the Democratic Union “In the name of Lithuania” and the People’s Union of Lithuanian Peasants.

Together, they plan to win 80 seats, and Social Democratic leader Vilija Blinkeviciute is expected to give up her seat in the European Parliament to lead the new government. The Social Democrats have pledged to increase pensions, make taxation more progressive, tax luxury goods and increase funding for social services.

Asked about the coming to power of a center-left coalition, President Gitanas Nauseda said he hoped that it “will be effective and will not diverge on the fundamental and strategic questions of the life of the country”.

Challenges

The ruling conservative party is expected to finish just behind the Social Democrats, but its chances of forming a majority remain limited. However, according to analysts, the task of forming a government may also be difficult for the Social Democrats.

“It is very likely that no one will really win this election,” said Rima Urbonaite. The election campaign was marked by controversy around a new populist party, Dawn on Niemen, led by former MP Remigijus Zemaitaitis which won 15 seats in the first round of voting.

While the Social Democrats have ruled out the party as a coalition partner, analysts warn it could be difficult to form a stable government without them.

Last year, Remigijus Zemaaititis gave up his seat in parliament after coming under fire for alleged anti-Semitic comments. He is on trial for inciting hatred, a charge he rejects, saying he only criticized the Israeli government’s policy in Gaza.

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