The 2024 elections could shake up the American political landscape with an unprecedented scenario: the House of Representatives could swing to the Democrats, while the Senate would come under Republican control. An event never seen before in the history of the American Congress.
A scenario unprecedented in American history could occur in 2024: the House of Representatives could come under Democratic control while the Senate swings to the Republican side. This phenomenon would be a first in more than 230 years of congressional elections.
The electoral maps for the House of Representatives and the Senate are very different, which explains this possible reversal. All 435 House seats are in play, while only a third of the Senate’s 100 seats are affected each cycle. Democrats need just four more seats to retake the majority in the House.
Democrats have rising chances in the House
In New York, four House seats won by Republicans in 2022 could swing to Democrats. These districts include the 4th on Long Island, the 17th and 19th in the Hudson Valley, and the 22nd in the central part of the state, where election lines have been redrawn in favor of Democrats. These districts were won by Joe Biden in 2020 with the new current boundaries.
A recent Newsday/Siena College poll, released Tuesday, shows Democratic candidate Laura Gillen leading Republican Anthony D’Esposito in the 4th District by 12 points. Other polls indicate that Democrats could also win in the 17th, 19th and 22nd districts, where races are very close.
Significant challenges for Democrats in the Senate
The fight for control of the Senate is much tougher for Democrats. Republicans could gain two key seats, including West Virginia, where Joe Manchin is retiring, and Montana, where Jon Tester faces an uphill fight. Other opportunities for Republicans are in Ohio, a state won by Donald Trump, as well as Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
A trend towards online voting with the presidential elections
The phenomenon of “online voting” has become more common in recent years. In 2020, only 4% of House districts voted differently for president and for their House representative. This phenomenon makes the predictions clearer: the districts won by Biden are now priority targets for the Democrats.
In California, five Republican seats could also be picked up by Democrats, strengthening the possibility of a Democratic majority in the House.
A historic result in sight?
Although Republicans could still retain the House and Senate, current dynamics point to a historic possibility: a Congress split between the two parties, with each chamber under different control.
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