With less than six months until the election, Joe Biden’s approval rating is historically low despite objectively good performance on several indicators.
According to the poll average, 38% of Americans approve of Biden’s performance and 56% disapprove.
This is the lowest approval rating for a president in May of his fourth year since polls were invented.
The reasons for this dissatisfaction are known: inflation, the economy, crime, the migration crisis, wars and, of course, age.
Truths and myths
The problem is that these reasons are largely based on false perceptions. A recent poll (see box) suggests that perceptions of the economic situation are much more pessimistic than actual indicators.
According to other polls, Americans are generally satisfied with their personal economic situation but perceive the overall situation very negatively. Inflation is the main concern. The majority believe that it is increasing even if it has fallen significantly (from 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.4% last month). Other good news that is largely ignored: the increase in wages has exceeded that in prices for more than a year.
Biden must also contend with the persistent myth that Republican presidents manage the economy better than Democrats. It’s wrong. Since the 1950s, major economic indicators have performed significantly better during Democratic administrations.
Another myth that harms Joe Biden is that of an increase in violent crime, while it is decreasing. Added to this is the myth of immigrant criminality, which Trump brandishes like a scarecrow while the immigrant crime rate is significantly lower than the general rate.
A communication problem
Joe Biden therefore has a big communication problem on his hands between now and November, while opinion is driven by feelings apparently impervious to the facts.
This also applies to Biden’s legislative record. Even though he has succeeded in advancing many of the bipartisan projects that his predecessor was unable to complete, right-wing media continue to give credence to Trump’s caricature of Biden as a left-wing radical.
In foreign policy, Biden is falsely held responsible for the wars in Ukraine and Gaza while Trump projects a false image of peacemaker. Let us not forget that the “peace” he envisions would involve the capitulation of Ukraine and the obliteration of Palestine.
Ultimately, Biden’s age will continue to hurt him as his opponent, almost as old as he is, talks about defying the Constitution to run again in 2028.
It is still possible for Biden to redress some of the perceptions that plague his campaign, but time is running out. Fortunately for him, he will be able to highlight the contrast with his opponent, who risks acquiring before long the unenviable status of criminal tried and convicted.
Number of the week
40,003
The Dow Jones stock index exceeded the symbolic threshold of 40,000 points at close last Friday, for the first time in its history. The index has climbed 40% since October 22, 2020, the day Donald Trump claimed that the stock market would collapse if Joe Biden was elected.
The quote of the week
“Is this on his official account? Wow! A Unified Reich is the language of Hitler. It’s not America’s.”
– Joe Biden, on the Twitter-X network, in reaction to a message sent by Donald Trump on his network Truth Social, which includes a reference to Nazi Germany.
The lie detector
According to Donald Trump and the right-wing echo chamber media, the American economy is in a catastrophic situation. According to a poll published in The Guardian on May 22, a majority (56%) of Americans believe that the US economy is in recession, 49% believe that unemployment is at its highest level in 50 years and 49% believe that the stock market is falling.
FAKE
That’s not what the numbers say. The American economy is expanding and has not experienced a recession since the bottom of the pandemic in 2020. As for unemployment, it is historically low at 3.9% and has remained below 4% since January 2022, the longest period at such a low level in 50 years. The Dow Jones and S&P500 stock indexes are up more than 20% in 2023 and more than 10% since the start of 2024.
Photo of the week
Screenshot of a video broadcast on the X network by Joe Biden, where he is surprised to see a Nazi-sounding reference on Donald Trump’s official account.
