Unfortunately for those who thought they had escaped and spent the summer, they were wrong, because now comes the army’s turn. This Tuesday, the very popular General Ivan Popov, former commander of the 58th Army, was arrested for fraud. The next day, a double draw, with the detention of General Vadim Chamarine – deputy chief of the General Staff – and Vladimir Verteleski – head of supply. The reason ? Having received bribes, authorities claim. A relatively common practice in the country, now sanctioned.
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Promise, we don’t purge
Logically questioned the day after these arrests about a possible desire to get rid of profiles deemed incompetent or embarrassing, the Kremlin brushed aside the question. “The fight against corruption is continuous work,” its spokesperson Dmitri Peskov laconically declared. “This is not a campaign”.
Valeri Guerassimov, who has to spend complicated nights, would not be threatened… “for the moment” said Mr. Peskov. The Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces therefore remains in post, but will have to deal with the arrival of the new Minister of Defense Andreï Beloussov, economist, Deputy Prime Minister and former account manager of the Wagner group for the Kremlin. “Andrei Belousov, a civilian, was appointed to audit the Defense Ministry”, notes Igor Delanoë, Deputy Director of the Franco-Russian observatory. “His new deputy, Oleg Saveliev, has also been an auditor at the Court of Auditors since 2019.”
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Explosion of expenses
Several reasons explain this reorganization and its timing. If Russia was perfectly able to contain the Ukrainian counter-offensive launched in June 2023 and today finds itself in a relatively favorable position on the front, the initial debacle of the “special operation” and the mutiny of Yevgeny Prigozhin left traces. “But Putin never makes decisions under pressurecomments Igor Delanoë. He is still waiting for it to subside and for the spotlight to shift to other subjects to settle his scores.” As the handling of the Prigozhin case very effectively illustrated. General Popov, very critical of the management of the war in Ukraine, is undoubtedly paying the consequences today.
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”But a much more fundamental element explains this purge, continues the Deputy Director of the Franco-Russian observatory. The explosion of military spending. The budget of the Ministry of Defense has increased significantly over the past two years. All inclusive (defense and security), Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would devote 8% of its GDP to this this year. Before the war, we were at 5% or 6% and Putin had already suggested that we should not go beyond that. The logical increase which followed the launch of the special operation must have whetted the appetites of people who had developed bad habits. However, Russia is now preparing to wage a long-term conflict and must provide itself with the means. Which means that we will have to do more and better with a roughly constant budget. Putin knows history perfectly, he does not want to reach the 11,12 or 13% of GDP devoted at the time by the Soviet regime to Defense, the fall of which was partly caused by the hypertrophied military budget.”
The ultras are delighted
Nothing is more logical, to rationalize expenses and improve the efficiency of the military-industrial complex, than to avoid leaks and make some examples among the corrupt. According to the well-informed Institute for the Study of War, Moscow has also given unusual freedom to military bloggers and other ultranationalist circles to comment on this week’s arrests and vilify the indelicate, in order – no doubt – to maintain the image of “cleaner” by Andrei Beloussov.
”It is difficult to say whether the Kremlin is careful or not, but it should be wary of a potential perverse effect, However, believes Igor Delanoë. Cleaning up finances is good. Putting too many experienced generals who know how to command behind bars could become problematic. Especially when they are appreciated by the troops”. Other sources also believe that as a good former agent of the intelligence services (FSB), Vladimir Putin has always had a moderate love for the army, of which he tends to distrust, and to which he regularly likes to remind who runs it ultimately.
