“If Israel is incapable of proposing a transition, it is because it is categorically opposed to imagining a “day after””

“If Israel is incapable of proposing a transition, it is because it is categorically opposed to imagining a “day after””
“If Israel is incapable of proposing a transition, it is because it is categorically opposed to imagining a “day after””

PAs the days pass, the parallel between the reaction of the United States after September 11 and that of Israel after October 7, 2023 becomes clearer. After the use of force to the point of unreason, which resulted in a terrible human toll in Gaza, the time of disorder comes, due to failure to anticipate “the day before the day after”: that is, the transition towards a political objective.

In Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States at least had the merit of having a project: that of imposing democracy from above, even if it was shattered in record time against a reality far more complex than that envisaged by neoconservative bedroom strategists. In Gaza, a territory with which it is supposed to know a minimum, Israel is now displaying its negligence, to the point of shaking the war cabinet set up after the greatest massacre of civilians and the greatest capture of hostages of the history of the Hebrew State.

This is evidenced by the battles that the Israeli army has been forced to wage for several weeks in the north of the territory, precisely where it was concentrated in the first months of its devastating offensive. This persistent guerrilla war, which constitutes a return to basics – Hamas having been born under Israeli occupation -, singularly puts into perspective the argument of the Israeli government according to which a large-scale military operation in Rafah, the last city to have escaped its steamroller, would allow a “total victory” against the Islamic militia.

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This would undoubtedly be the case if Hamas’ imperative was to preserve its control over Gaza, not only security, but also administrative. The decision of October 7, 2023, the extremism of the military wing, its use of the population and hospital or educational infrastructures as shields say that this is not the case.

Think about the “day after”

The “Somalization” of a Gaza Strip delivered to chaos and permanent violence can still be avoided on the condition of starting from one observation: if Israel is incapable of proposing a transition, it is because the Jewish State is categorically opposed to imagining a “day after” with a political perspective. And that this “day after” must be limited to endless negotiations over the volumes of humanitarian aid allowed into Gaza, or the use of even the smallest bag of cement in the Sisyphean task of its reconstruction.

However, everything should be done to avoid falling back into the rut dug since the last peace negotiations, more than ten years ago, which we saw what they brought to the Israelis and the Palestinians.

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