How was the Russian army able, in mid-April, to break through the Ukrainian defenses on a narrow portion of Ukraine’s eastern front and push in five kilometers in a few days to seize , at the top of a 200 meter high hill, in the village of Otcheretyné? Lack of ammunition, shells and anti-aircraft missiles in the first place – how can you defend a position when each salvo of shells requires prior authorization from the brigade commander?
Delay in ignition also in the construction of fortifications. But, we fear in kyiv and beyond, there is above all a shortage of men which has only gotten worse in recent months. And the Ukrainian authorities still seem hesitant to confront the problem. “This is the major question, explains Rob Lee, military analyst and researcher at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. The problem right now is that Ukraine is not mobilizing enough troops to make up for its losses, let alone go on the offensive.”he adds.
kyiv hesitates and procrastinates
On April 11, Yuri Sodol, lieutenant general and commander of the Khortytsia operational group, deployed on the Donbass front, precisely posed the problem in a hearing in the Ukrainian Parliament: “A typical squad might be down to two men, three or four at best, when it would normally have eight or ten,” he lamented. With immediate consequences for an army trying, since the loss of the Avdiïvka fortress in February, to stop the Russian assaults: instead of being able to defend a portion of the front 15 kilometers long, a brigade is, according to the officer, more than capable of defending five kilometers, forcing the deployment of two additional brigades to fill the gaps. Two brigades that might otherwise have rested in the rear, trained, or gone on the offensive. Another problem: “As the enemy knows that we do not have sufficient forces to counterattack, he can prepare his offensives and choose where to push”worries Mykola Melnyk, a former company commander of the 47th Mechanized Brigade.
But despite the urgency, repeated since the fall by the Ukrainian command, kyiv hesitates and procrastinates. A law intended to intensify the pace of mobilization, sent to Parliament in December, rejected in January, put back on the table, filled with thousands of amendments, was finally adopted on April 16. It lowers the minimum age for mobilization from 27 to 25 years and gives extensive powers to the military police stations responsible for finding recruits. Too little, criticize certain figures close to the army, who demand a minimum age of 20 years. And already too late to prevent the Russian advances of the last two weeks.
A critical need for men
Progress which, with the violence of the fighting and the absence of prospect of the army leaving in the event of mobilization, has only reinforced the unpopularity of the process. Only 20% of men aged 25 to 59 who have not yet been called up plan to join the army, voluntarily or not, according to a survey published at the beginning of April. Across Ukraine, the images and stories of men being loaded onto transports and sent manu militari into units weigh heavily.
Volodymyr Zelensky continues to insist on the importance of Western support, celebrating the American aid plan of 61 billion dollars (57 billion euros), finally signed by Joe Biden on April 24. But it is the need for men which could become critical, while the Ukrainian defense in the Donbass is cracking under Russian pressure. “Russia maintains an advantage in artillery, but this advantage will be reduced with the arrival of American aidexplains Rob Lee. The question now will become that of personnel, can Ukraine solve its mobilization problem, and can Russia continue to recruit at the same pace? » The month of May, it is now feared in kyiv, could be the most difficult for Ukraine since the start of the Russian invasion.
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American aid of 57 billion euros
After months of transpartisan negotiations, American parliamentarians ended up adopting, on Tuesday April 23, a vast package of 61 billion dollars (57 billion euros) in military and economic assistance planned for Ukraine.
$14 billion will go to training, equipping and paying the Ukrainian army. Around $10 billion, earmarked for economic assistance for the energy and infrastructure sectors, will be sent in the form of a loan.
A large part of the envelope will also be used to replenish the stocks of the American army and will return to arms factories in the United States.
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