By delivering substantial financial aid, the United States is regaining control of the war in Ukraine. At a time when the front is shifting in favor of the Russians, this aid can allow kyiv not to collapse and to initiate talks to achieve a ceasefire.
Blocked for many months, American aid to Ukraine has just been authorized with an envelope of 61 billion euros. Enough to reassure kyiv and a Ukrainian army on the verge of collapse. For several weeks, the Ukrainians have been retreating, Russia has been nibbling at the front and even succeeded in capturing the town of Avdiivka last February. In the general staffs, many fear a spring offensive which would blow away the Ukrainian defense and which would open the plains to Russian tanks. In their sights, Odessa, but also Transnistria, where a Russian regiment remains in this breakaway republic of Moldova.
Rebalancing and talks
The money is announced, but it has not yet arrived. The Senate must also approve the aid, then the equipment will have to be purchased and delivered and then integrated into the Ukrainian defense system. Nothing has been done and there is still a long way to go for a rebalancing, from announcement to real use. The Ukrainian army is faced with an insoluble problem: it lacks men and has difficulty finding them, despite political calls and laws for mobilization. The average age of fighters is approaching 40, many young people have gone abroad, or have died or been injured. Leaves are constantly postponed for lack of reserves to ensure them, which undermines the morale of the soldiers on post and does not encourage commitment. It is also difficult to give your life to recover territories that Ukraine certainly considers its own, but which are Russian-speaking and populated by people who look more towards Moscow than towards kyiv. It is illusory to think that Donbass will return to the fold of Ukraine or that Crimea will once again see the yellow and blue flag flying. The Ukrainian army is fighting to prevent the collapse of its country and a Russian surge, which is already a lot, but it has been aware, and for a long time, that it cannot fight to recover the territories controlled by the army. Russian.
This aid, which can ensure a rebalancing, must therefore also make it possible to open negotiations for a ceasefire, which will not be a peace treaty, but which will make it possible to freeze the front and cool it down, in the absence of adjust it. President Zelensky himself has just announced the opening of discussions with Russia. He has little choice: his army is not capable of overthrowing the Russian army, the Ukrainian public no longer wants to die for this war and the Americans want to start negotiations in order to move on. The process is still long and peace is not for tomorrow. The end of the fighting, if it comes, will not mean the end of the war or even the signing of a peace treaty, but at least the establishment of the front and the reduction of tensions.
Economic dangers
It is one thing to help Ukraine and ensure the stability of the continent. It’s another to sabotage the economy and therefore the power of the French and Europeans on issues that are not ours. The end of the fighting, when it comes, will not resolve the Ukrainian problem, which has been festering for more than 15 years. Another chapter will then open, just as dangerous for France and the countries of Europe. First, the question of weapons, which have started to arrive, but which will sweep across Western Europe, increasing criminal and security risks. Then, the problem of mafias, Ukraine being a corrupt country and plagued by criminal networks. They delight in bankrupt and poor countries, which is what Ukraine will be once the weapons have been laid down. We risk experiencing the same scenario as Yugoslavia in the 2000s: a gray and porous zone through which networks and traffic pass. Albania and Kosovo are today mafia states, particularly for drugs, pornography, pedophilia and weapons. Tomorrow, it will be the same for certain Ukrainian regions in the hands of reinvigorated oligarchs.
Thinking about the world according to
Anglo-Saxon investment funds are rushing to Ukraine to buy its land, recover its wealth and make it the rear base of their production. Before the war, China, through front companies, was the main landowner of Ukraine. On these arable and fertile lands a major agricultural and economic war is being played out which will hit French agriculture.
The third risk is energy. Despite the war, Russian hydrocarbons continue to transit through Ukraine and be sold to Central European countries. What will Russia do once the conflict ends? Its Nord Stream gas pipeline was scuttled by Ukrainian services, even though it cost it a lot of money and took a long time to build. Moscow has found new markets and new routes and has learned to do without Europe. But Europe cannot do without Russia. The energy crisis is not resolved. The energy problem has not been resolved either. If the war in Ukraine opened our eyes to many realities, we have not progressed much in strategic and intellectual terms. We still have to think about this new world and prepare for it.
