Videos of what appear to be Western military convoys, presumably heading towards Ukraine and Poland, are being relayed on Russian Telegram channels. What is going on ?
What I am certain of is that the American aid, which was approved ten days ago, is arriving. These are stocks of weapons that already existed in Germany and perhaps in Poland. They will be delivered quickly as President Biden promised. That’s probably what these videos show.
There are two kinds of aid arriving: shells and missiles, which we cannot see, and armored vehicles, which we do see. The latter will be less able to operate quickly in the field. They must be conditioned and then distributed. Finally, units must train on it. While the shells and missiles will go directly into the equipment already in place.
Ukraine should fill its stocks of missiles and munitions in a few days to confront Moscow
For several days, the Ukrainian army has been reporting that the situation has deteriorated. Is she in a position of defeat?
The Ukrainian army is moving into a defensive position. In this position, you must set up defense zones, which are sometimes set back from the current combat zones, to take advantage of the terrain. It could be high points, a canal, railway tracks… But it is also sometimes the Russian push which pushes them back.
It is clear that the Ukrainian army is in a weak position. The year 2024 is going to be extremely tough for Ukraine. Probably, in June or July there will be Russian offensives with replenished forces. Will the Ukrainians have had time to reorganize and distribute the equipment that is arriving now? I don’t know, but they have to act quickly.
For their part, the Russians declared that they had the upper hand. Is that the case ?
The Russians have an interest in increasing the visibility of their victories, even if they are limited. There is Russian progress, it is undeniable. That doesn’t mean it’s a defeat. Ukraine is forced to change strategy for three reasons: because of the Russian push, because of the lack of ammunition but they are arriving, and because it lacked personnel. Ukraine must resolve this last problem, it is having difficulty recruiting.
It seems that Ukraine is experiencing more and more desertions…
Desertions of Ukrainian soldiers I don’t think. On the other hand, Ukrainian civilians who do not want to be enlisted, yes I believe so.
Are Zelensky’s days numbered, as Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov says?
From the beginning the Russians have sought to sow discord in Ukraine by saying that Putin is elected and that Zelensky’s days are numbered, particularly because of internal difficulties. Today I do not believe that Zelensky is in political danger. Physically, do the Russians want to eliminate him? So far they have not done so. Do they want to do it? The question remains unanswered.
War in Ukraine: In kyiv, the stagnation of the front generates tensions in high places which Russia enjoys
The German Defense Minister stated quite enigmatically that Russia was mass arming and Putin had a plan. What do you know about it?
What I believe is that Russia knows that it does not have the capacity to conquer Ukraine entirely. Its goal today is, in my opinion, to conquer Donbass and then create difficulties in Moldova or in the Kaliningrad enclave. I don’t really believe in the objectives towards the European Union because they already cannot defeat Ukraine, they do not have the means to defeat Europe or NATO. In the long term, Putin has an interest in having a long war to hold the Russian population. He can bring everyone together around his ideology only because he is at war
