Back in business, Trump is determined to end the conflict in Ukraine. During his campaign, the Republican boasted of resolving the issue in 24 hours. Before changing his mind. The administration is now talking about a 100-day period to resolve the conflict. And for a resumption, willy-nilly, of peace negotiations between belligerents, the billionaire uses his method: blowing hot and cold by playing on the balance of power.
So, on the one hand, Trump is threatening Volodymyr Zelensky – nicknamed the “best salesman on the planet” – to suspend arms deliveries if kyiv's claims are not lowered. On the other hand, he urges Vladimir Putin to come to the negotiating table, failing which he would impose new sanctions and massively deliver weapons to Ukraine.
“Ukraine is in obvious wear and tear”
However, the situation is very different from that which prevails in the Middle East, where the 47th American president easily twisted the arm of his ally Netanyahu to obtain concessions on a ceasefire in Gaza, even before his inauguration. On the European front, Russia is undeniably in a position of strength. Although it has not managed to completely recapture the Kursk pocket after five months of repeated assaults, Moscow's army is advancing like a steamroller towards Pokrovsk and Toretsk, in the Donbass.
“Ukraine is in obvious wear and tear but, from a Russian point of view, the situation cannot last forever,” adds Pierre Lellouche, co-founder of the French Institute of International Relations and author of “Gears: the Ukrainian war and the shift of the world” published by Odile Jacob. “Putin is paying a heavy price,” adds the former minister. NATO expanded and Russia became China's vassal. » The master of the Kremlin is still reluctant to decree general mobilization while his army is losing enormous numbers of men on the front. More than 600,000 have died or injured since February 2022, says the Pentagon.
-Moscow grappling with high inflation
From an economic point of view, the Russian economy has “big problems” according to Trump. This is, in fact, being hit hard by inflation: around 9.5% annually. Additionally, the ruble has lost almost 50% of its value since the invasion of Ukraine. But Russia is nevertheless showing insolent growth and circumventing sanctions thanks to third countries. “Apart from targeting the states that help it sell its oil, I do not think that the United States has the capacity to further disrupt the Russian economy,” analyzes Dmitry Nekrasov, Russian economist and former advisor to President Medvedev. Moscow still spends less on war than on financing pensions. The Russian economy can survive for years and years. »
If the pressure on kyiv is obvious, it is less so for Moscow. Which potentially allows Russia to demand very onerous conditions. “The Russians demand neutrality status for Ukraine and Trump will give it to them,” predicts Pierre Lellouche. The same goes for non-membership of NATO. » Except that Trump will not want to give the impression of giving in too much to the Russians. If only so as not to appear weak in the eyes of the Chinese, in light of a tightening of the Sino-American trade war.
France
TV
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