“Heavyweights of the past, people who were or who lost. Not a socialist of today. A team in major disconnect with the National Assembly after the dissolution”, castigates an influential member of the central bloc, as soon as the announcement of François Bayrou's government is known. Ten days after his eventful arrival in Matignon, the mayor of Pau (Pyrénées-Atlantiques) held in the extremes his commitment to forming a government “before Christmas”. The names of the 35 ministers were revealed Monday, December 23 in the early evening. The left but also the RN immediately denounced the casting, while the LR, once loyal supporters of Michel Barnier, also expressed criticism.
Gérald Darmanin at Justice, Elisabeth Borne at National Education, Aurore Bergé at Equality between Women and Men, Amélie de Montchalin at Budget… Macronist personalities have returned to the government while the arrival of the former Prime Minister (ex-PS) Manuel Valls in Overseas has been widely commented on. “It smells like dinosaurs and it will cause the end of the Fifth Republic”predicts a parliamentary advisor to France Télévisions.
The difficulties encountered by the centrist in broadening his political base generate a very strong continuity between his government and that of Michel Barnier. Of the 35 ministers appointed on Monday, 19 were already part of the team overthrown on December 4 by the Assembly. In addition, a third of new entrants have already been members of a government under Emmanuel Macron. “It’s a bit of a Barnier II since François Bayrou places himself in the same political configurationadds constitutionalist Benjamin Morel. It's going to be very complicated for the future.” he predicts.
In the Barnier government, Les Républicains and Renaissance had ten and 11 portfolios respectively, while the MoDem had three. The presidential party therefore regains the ascendancy in this new government, with 12 ministries, compared to six for LR. The MoDem, chaired by François Bayrou, has only two ministries (Foreign Affairs and Relations with Parliament).
Unsurprisingly, no current members of the Socialist Party enter. François Bayrou only won the entry of Manuel Valls, François Rebsamen and Juliette Méadel, three former ministers under François Hollande who then supported Emmanuel Macron. Despite numerous meetings, the fourth Prime Minister of 2024 did not manage to appoint, as he wanted, a third of personalities from the right, a third from the left and a third from the center.
On X, Mathilde Panot, head of the rebellious deputies, denounced “a government full of people disowned at the polls and who contributed to sinking our country… with the support of Marine Le Pen and the RN”. In formation has already warned that it will table a motion of censure against the Bayrou government, when parliament returns in January. “It’s not a government, it’s a provocation. The extreme right in power under the surveillance of the extreme right”denounced PS boss Olivier Faure on X.
“None of the conditions were respected by François Bayrou” to establish the non-censorship pact desired by the Elysée and Matignon, he added on BFMTV on Tuesday. “Given the reactions of the socialists, it will be very complicated for them not to move towards censorshipconfirms Benjamin Morel. We have, in addition, a right-wing of the government on the regalian with Retailleau at the Interior and Darmanin at Justice, whereas before it was the former PS Didier Migaud [garde des Sceaux du gouvernement Barnier]“.
“This once again places the RN as the arbiter of elegance. And they will not censor as long as they have no interest in censoring.”
Benjamin Morel, constitutionalistat franceinfo
Monday evening, the RN remained in a critical posture, without brandishing the threat of a priori censorship. For Marine Le Pen, the Bayrou government “is based like the precedent on a manifest absence of legitimacy and an untraceable majority”. “He will have to change his method, listen and hear the opposition to construct a budget that takes into account the choices expressed at the ballot box”she warned on X.
Did the boss of the RN weigh in behind the scenes? An hour before the announcement of the appointments, Xavier Bertrand, expected to take the head of the Ministry of Justice, declared that he had rejected the latest offers from François Bayrou. “I refuse to participate in a government of France formed with the approval of Marine Le Pen”writes the LR president of Hauts-de-France. “This press release will be a slow poison. From what moment deputies elected thanks to the Republican front, will find themselves supporting a government held by the RN? asks Benjamin Morel. Within ministerial cabinets, we think no less. “It’s a failure not to have gotten out of dependence on the RN”analyzes a ministerial advisor.
“Everyone considers that it will only last three months. I was told: 'Xavier Bertrand's press release has already killed the Bayrou government.'”
A ministerial advisorat franceinfo
“It is not true that any influence whatsoever was exerted on me”contested for his part François Bayrou on BFMTV. “Xavier Bertrand proposed an approach that I found violent to the Ministry of Justice”a “approach” who was not “not mine”he justified. The vice-president of the Assembly and former Macronist minister Roland Lescure also declined a place in the government, saying he “vigilant that the government definitively escapes the clutches of the RN”according to his entourage at franceinfo.
Deprived of the support of the left, François Bayrou will also have to deal with the increasingly timid support of the right. Relations could even become strained, with LR seeing its weight halved in this new team, even if Bruno Retailleau keeps Beauvau and becomes Minister of State. The right certainly obtained on Monday the written commitment of the Prime Minister particularly on “savings” budgetary measures and the encouragement of “work by all means”to which they had conditioned their participation in government. But this proved insufficient to strengthen the alliance.
Laurent Wauquiez, boss of LR deputies, gave up joining the team, failing to obtain the Finance portfolio. After the government becomes official, he does not rule out withdrawing his support from François Bayrou's team. “Laurent Wauquiez contests the Prime Minister's method and regrets that we are less well represented than before”explains an LR parliamentarian.
“We will have demanding support for the government, on a case by case basis, and we do not rule out leaving it if the account is not there.”
An LR parliamentarianat franceinfo
Some right-wing elected officials have even already crossed the Rubicon without delay. “After a three-month break, during which I supported the government of Michel Barnier, I am again in opposition”warned on X Senator LR Cédric Vial. “The common base [qui réunissait le bloc présidentiel et la droite sous Barnier] is still a little more crumbling, the situation a little more tense”notes Benjamin Morel. But time is running out. After the delicate formation of the government, François Bayrou and his teams will tackle another major challenge: providing France with a budget.
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