A the end of the prologue to his famous book Collapse (Folio, 2009), the American biologist and geographer Jared Diamond explains the underlying reasons for his interest in the disappearance of ancient civilizations. “In an unprecedented way in history, we are at risk of global decline. But we are also the first to be able to quickly learn lessons from events happening everywhere else in the world today, as from what has happened to any other society in the past.”he writes before describing the end of the Mayans, the builders of the statues of Easter Island or the Viking colonies of Greenland.
Listen to better survive? This intellectual ambition also perfectly sums up the difficult task of the United Nations Climate Conferences of the Parties (COP). Every year, the 197 countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change have more and more scientific literature at their disposal. Every year, negotiators can read reports from the United Nations (UN) about slow implementation of policies. Each year, they measure the distance to be accomplished and the mass of subjects to be resolved in two weeks.
In Baku, Azerbaijan, during COP29, diplomats and ministers kept up appearances. Sunday, November 24, late at night, they managed to agree on the main text of this conference. By 2035, developed countries will have to provide 300 billion dollars (284.71 billion euros) in aid to developing countries every year. The latter considered this paltry sum. Their needs to cope with the impacts and to finance their energy transition number in the trillions.
Chipped trust
The mixed epilogue of this COP must be placed in a broader context, on a road which leads from Dubai to Belem (Brazil). In 2023, COP28 in the United Arab Emirates set an ambition, the “transition away from fossil fuels”. That of 2025 in Brazil will arrive ten years after the adoption of the Paris agreement and must be the place to strengthen the climate policies of States to maintain the slim hope of containing warming to less than 1.5°C.
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Baku has added obstacles to this already very tortuous path. Because COP29 has further damaged the trust between the parties. Climate finance is seen by many developing countries as the “repair” of a “climate debt” of the North, the rich countries having revved the engine of their growth by emitting the vast majority of greenhouse gases since 1850. Polluters must pay, repeat the leaders of African states or islands threatened by rising water levels. According to developing countries, these billions are also the only way to implement Dubai’s words.
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