Will Michel Barnier fall next week? Censorship seems to be getting closer, while the National Rally (RN), pushed by its voters, increasingly raises this threat, brushing aside the government's warnings about the potential “storm” that its fall would trigger. The deputies of the far-right party met this Thursday at 2 p.m. in the presence of their leader, Marine Le Pen, and the president of the party, Jordan Bardella who affirms that the “government will fall if it persists”. Without an “outstretched hand” from the Prime Minister, RN deputies could vote on censure, perhaps as early as next week on the Social Security budget, on which deputies and senators have reached a compromise.
Only a matter of days left? The Socialist Party (PS) has confirmed that it will vote for the motion of censure against Michel Barnier if the Prime Minister triggers 49.3 to pass the State budget and that of Social Security without a vote. “There has been no effort to involve socialist groups in a budgetary solution,” regretted François Hollande this morning on France Inter. “When there is neither the reinstatement of the wealth tax, nor the questioning of the flat tax, nor a levy on the highest incomes […] there is a reduction in positions in National Education and delisting of medicines […] How do you expect socialists, whatever their sensitivity, to be able to let a budget like this pass?” asserted the former head of state. The party's decision-making body “unanimously confirmed the vote on a motion of censure”, welcomed for his part the First Secretary of the PS, Olivier Faure who is preparing, in view of the events, to have to soon bring together his troops again, much less unanimous when it comes to to imagine post-Barnier The president of the socialist group in the National Assembly, Boris Vallaud opened a door this weekend to a government contract with others – Modem in particular – as well as participation in an executive leadership. by a technical Prime Minister Former head of state François Hollande for his part said this Thursday that he was opposed to a nomination of Lucie Castets if the Barnier coalition fell and against a resignation of Emmanuel Macron as some are calling for. left and RIGHT.
In recent hours, several figures have called on the President of the Republic to resign in order to unravel the crux of the political crisis. After the call from MP Liot Charles de Courson on Wednesday morning to this effect, the mayor of Meaux (Seine-et-Marne) Jean-François Copé recommends the same solution. For the RN, “the departure of the president will be imposed on him if the country becomes blocked”. On the LFI side, Jean-Luc Mélenchon also speaks this Thursday in a long text on his blog of an “irreversible slope” in the current political context, while the figures from the Elabe institute (for BFMTV) show that more than 6 out of 10 French people are in favor of the departure of Emmanuel Macron in the event of censorship of Michel Barnier.
A question which agitates the different political parties while the parliamentary battle continues in the hemicycle. The left, supported by the RN, is trying this Thursday to repeal the much-maligned 2023 pension reform, as part of the parliamentary niche of La France insoumise in the National Assembly. But the text, which plans to reduce the legal retirement age from 64 to 62 and which would have every chance of being adopted thanks to the support of the entire left and the RN, may not be submitted to a vote before the midnight deadline. “Shame on you for being obstructive and stubborn,” said the rapporteur of the text, the rebellious MP Ugo Bernalicis. Elected officials from the right and the center have in fact tabled hundreds of amendments in an attempt to make the debates last until the fateful hour, at midnight. The climate is already electric…
The government, for its part, said this Thursday that it was willing to make “concessions” on the budgetary texts, in particular on the electricity tax. After having already partially acceded to the requests of Laurent Wauquiez and Gabriel Attal – on the indexation of pensions for one and on reductions in charges for the other – it is this time a demand from Marine Le Pen that the Prime Minister decided to satisfy by announcing in an interview with Le Figaro this Thursday “a drop in electricity prices of 14%”.
But will this new decline allow the government to avoid censorship? What are the possible scenarios for the coming weeks? Is the hypothesis of Emmanuel Macron's resignation credible in the event of a vote of no confidence?
The experts:
– Jérôme JAFFRÉ – Political scientist – Associate researcher at CEVIPOF
– Dominique SEUX – Editorialist – Les Echos and France Inter
– Caroline MICHEL-AGUIRRE – Senior reporter in the political department – The New Obs
– Soazig QUEMENER – Editor-in-chief – La Tribune Sunday
– Anne-Charlène BEZZINA (duplex) – Political scientist and constitutionalist, lecturer in public law
