Global natural gas markets are expected to remain tight in 2025, with demand continuing to rise and supply slower than before the pandemic and energy crisis.
This is what a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) reveals, warning that stopping the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine could increase short-term pressure on the LNG market. The IEA considers that the global gas balance has remained fragile despite the evolution of markets towards a gradual rebalancing last year, after the supply shock caused by the war in Ukraine.
The Agency indicates that in 2024, the rapid growth of Asian markets has pushed global demand to an increase of 2.8%, or 115 billion cubic meters, a level significantly higher than the average growth rate of 2% recorded between 2010 and 2020. Supply remained under pressure with below-average growth in liquefied natural gas production, concomitant with extreme weather events.
Call for greater cooperation
“Similar dynamics are expected to persist into 2025 before the arrival of a wave of new LNG export capacity, led by the United States and Qatar, which is expected to come online in the second half of this decade », Specifies the IEA report.
-Europe, and even if the supply risk will not arise imminently after the cessation of the transit of Russian gas since January 1, is expected to increase LNG imports, “which will further tighten the fundamentals of the global market in 2025. The IEA estimates that Moldova’s vulnerability is significantly greater than that of the EU and “calls for greater international cooperation to strengthen the security of gas supplies.”
If international cooperation has developed since the start of the energy crisis, indicates the Agency, “responsible producers and consumers must redouble their efforts to strengthen the architecture of a safe and secure gas supply to the global scale.
Growth in global demand should, according to the same source, fall below 2% this year, supported by Asian markets which would absorb more than half of the increase in global gas demand. The IEA will organize an international summit on the future of energy security in the United Kingdom next April. The question of traditional and emerging risks linked to energy security, including for natural gas, will be at the heart of the debates at this summit.
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