1X2 prediction: which team to bet on?
Draw or RB Leipzig wins the match
1. Recent Stats: RB Leipzig show a high level of performance when playing at home, winning 80% of their last 5 matches with a total of 21 goals. Additionally, their offensive potential is 136%, which indicates their strength in attack. Sporting, on the other hand, have a less impressive away performance, winning just 20% of their last 5 games with an offensive success rate of just 71%.
2. Defensive potential: RB Leipzig showed a higher level of defensive resilience than Sporting, with a defensive potential of 86% compared to 36% for Sporting. This suggests that RB Leipzig are less likely to concede goals, strengthening the chances of a draw or victory for RB Leipzig.
3. Probabilities: Based on a probabilistic analysis, there is a higher probability (60.14%) that the match will end in a draw or with an RB Leipzig victory, compared to other possible outcomes. So, according to the law of probability, betting on a draw or a victory for RB Leipzig is a safer option.
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Over/Under 2.5: that even?
More than 2.5 goals in the match
1. RB Leipzig offensive performance: Leipzig have an offensive potential of 3.8 goals per game at home, which can be corroborated with their last 5 matches where they have scored a total of 21 goals. It is therefore likely that they will score at least 2 goals.
2. RB Leipzig’s defensive performance: Leipzig also showed weak defense at home, conceding 2.4 goals on average per game. Therefore, it is likely that Sporting will also score in this match.
3. Sporting’s away performances: Sporting scores on average 2 goals per away match and concedes on average 1 goal in the same conditions. They have scored a total of 9 goals in their last 5 away games, which reinforces the hypothesis that they could contribute to the goal total in this match.
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BTTS: Will both teams score?
Both teams score: Yes
1. RB Leipzig’s offensive potential at home is very high with an average of 3.8 goals scored per match and an efficiency rate of 136%. This indicates a high probability that RB Leipzig will manage to score in the match.
2. Even though Sporting have an inferior away performance comparable to RB Leipzig at home, they have managed to score at least once in 80% of their last five away games. This also shows a non-negligible probability that Sporting can score in this match.
3. Historical data shows that both teams have a general tendency to conceive goals. RB Leipzig have conceded 21 goals in their last five home games, and Sporting have conceded 11 goals in their last five away games. This defensive weakness on the part of both teams could lead to a game where both teams manage to score.
Which bet offers an attractive value bet?
Sporting wins the match
1. Statistics show that even if RB Leipzig has strong offensive potential at home (136%), their defense is relatively weak with only 86% success. Which opens the way to the possibility of a victory for Sporting, especially if the latter manages to capitalize on this weakness.
2. The odds for a Sporting victory are 2.30, offering good value compared to the probability of success estimated at 39.86%. The difference between the odds offered and the probability of success gives good value to this bet.
3. Despite seemingly unfavorable statistics for Sporting (only 20% away win), recent matches show an ability to score goals, notably the 4-4 draw against Guimaraes and the 3-0 victory against Rio Ave. If Sporting manages to maintain this offensive form, it is likely that they can win the match against RB Leipzig.
Betting on the correct score
RB Leipzig 3-1 Sporting
1. RB Leipzig, in their last 5 home matches, have scored an average of 3.8 goals per match. This indicates high attacking potential which could result in at least 3 goals against Sporting.
2. Sporting, in its last 5 away matches, has a poor defensive performance, having conceded an average of 1 goal per match. This trend could well continue with RB Leipzig scoring more goals.
-3. The probability of more than 2.5 goals being scored in the match is relatively high at 67.39%. This, in combination with Leipzig’s offensive record and Sporting’s defensive record, supports the correct score of 3-1.
Analysis and key facts of the match
The shape of the teams
RB Leipzig have a strong home record, winning 80% of their last 5 matches. They are an attacking team at home, averaging 3.8 goals per game, but they also have a defensive problem, conceding an average of 2.4 goals each time.
For its part, Sporting struggles away from home, winning only 20% of its outings. They score an average of 2 goals per away game and concede an average of 1 goal, which is a testament to their more cautious style of play.
The odds suggest a slight advantage in favor of Leipzig with a 40.58% chance of winning, compared to 39.86% for Sporting. A draw also remains possible with a probability of 19.57%.
In terms of goals, the odds predict a high-scoring match with a 67.39% probability that more than 2.5 goals will be scored. Both teams have a high chance of scoring, with a 57.25% chance.
Based on recent performances and data, a plausible prediction would be a home win for RB Leipzig with over 2.5 goals in the match. However, the balance is precarious and the result can swing one way or the other.
The number of potential goals
RB Leipzig dominate at home, winning 80% of their matches. They scored 21 goals, an average of 3.8 goals per game. However, they have also conceded just as much, 21 goals. Their offensive potential is therefore very high at 136%.
Sporting is not as successful away from home. They win only 20% of their matches with an average score of 2 goals per match and concede one goal. Their offensive potential is low compared to Leipzig with 71%.
Leipzig has a winning chance of 40.58% while Sporting has a chance of 39.86%. There appears to be a high probability of at least 1.5 goals in the match, or 81.88%.
So it is likely that there will be a lot of goals in this match. However, the outcome of the match remains uncertain, either team could win. Personally, based on the statistics, I lean towards RB Leipzig. But be careful, nothing is ever certain in football.
Statistics suggest that both teams will score with a probability of 57.25%.
Also note Leipzig’s history of showing an ability to score a lot of goals at home, especially when they scored 10 against Baník Souš.
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Our conclusions and prediction for this match
In conclusion, it seems that RB Leipzig has a strong chance of achieving victory in this match, especially thanks to their impressive home performance and high offensive potential. However, Sporting are not to be underestimated either, evidenced by their ability to score goals, even when they are away. However, the safest bet seems to be that both teams will score in the match, given their respective defensive records. The exact scoreline of 3-1 in favor of RB Leipzig seems like a reasonable prediction given their recent performances, but as always in football, nothing is certain. In terms of value betting, Sporting winning the match offers a great opportunity despite the statistics against them. In short, this should be a fascinating match with plenty of opportunities for punters.
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