Published on Wednesday January 22, 2025 •
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Wednesday January 15, 2025, after more than a year of diplomatic blockage, a ceasefire was finally concluded between Israel and Hamas. This agreement, long hoped for, has finally seen the light of day after long indirect negotiations in Doha (Qatar). These have accelerated as the departure of Joe Biden from the White House approaches, who has just been replaced on Monday by Donald Trump. The ASFE team spoke with its representative in Tel Aviv, Mr. Johan Habib, to find out more about the ceasefire.
Negotiations in Doha led, last Wednesday, January 15, to the formalization of an agreement providing for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the release of hostages, after more than fifteen months of war between Israel and the Hamas causing thousands of deaths. What is the current situation in Israel? What was the reaction of the Israeli community?
In Israel, the entire people held their breath when they saw the live images of the three hostage girls emerging from the Hamas hell. I can say that at that moment the whole country literally stopped and the pain of the past months was just beginning to subside. But this gradual release is a national torture. There is a very broad consensus that the release of the hostages is an absolute priority. The question of knowing at what cost is, however, subject to debate between those who believe that it must be done at all costs and a minority fraction of the population believing that releasing prisoners, sentenced to life for terrorist crimes, will serve the purpose of creation of “time bombs”. The Israelis are not fooled. They know that as long as Hamas controls the Gaza Strip, the threat will persist, and the question is not whether they will try “October 7” again but when they will be able to do so.
This news was welcomed by the international community. Does a ceasefire mean the beginning of lasting peace in this region? Conversely, do you think that this truce remains extremely fragile and that everything could change at any moment?
The problem is that there is only distrust in the face of a Gazan population which almost lynched the 3 hostages leaving the clutches of Hamas by entering the Red Cross vehicles. Let us not forget that two of the three girls, like so many others, were kidnapped by families.
This truce is very fragile because Hamas is playing psychological warfare to the fullest by not releasing the names of the hostages who can be released until late, by delaying their handover, or humiliating them in front of the cameras. We still expect many provocations before the end of this phase to push Israel into error. Furthermore, paradoxically, the terrorist organization has enriched itself considerably (1 billion dollars) by smuggling humanitarian aid to the population and therefore has an interest in a status quo.
-Finally, it is the general opinion that as long as Iran plays this harmful role of protector of these organizations: Hezbollah, Hamas, Houtis in Yemen or militias in Iraq, no peace will be possible.
The first of the three phases provided for by the agreement was initiated on Sunday morning. It provides for the release of 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for an exchange of Palestinian detainees and an increase in humanitarian aid. Can you tell us more about the composition of the ceasefire agreement divided into three phases?
We do not have much information on the content of the 2nd phase because it must be negotiated from the 16th day of the agreement. Hamas has called for a definitive and unreserved end to the Israeli presence in Gaza. In addition, it plans to inject several billion dollars from abroad. Furthermore, Hamas’ request for release will apparently concern detainees sentenced to very heavy sentences such as Marwann Barghouti or Hasan Salamé, each sentenced to several dozen life sentences, which could lead to a no go on the part of the Israeli authorities.
Hamas “will never govern in Gaza again,” assures Donald Trump’s future National Security Advisor. How do you see the future of events with the arrival of Donald Trump at the White House?
You have to be realistic. In order to present a credible alternative to Hamas, big slogans will not do the trick. The role of the new American administration would be to put pressure on countries in the region – Egypt, Qatar, Emirates, Saudi Arabia – to coordinate the establishment of a regional force to administer Gaza and end Hamas’s control over it. .
Do you have anything else to add?
Even if the Israeli population is feverish about the fate of the hostages still held, everyone is rightly thinking of the “day after”. How can I prevent this from happening again? In Gaza, hatred of Israel and Jews has been anchored in particular since childhood in school textbooks seized from Gaza schools. It will take a generation to unlearn how to hate others. On Israel’s side, government and military officials will have to answer to the country for what will remain the worst pogrom since the Second World War and the worst security failure since the creation of the State of Israel.
Johann Habib, ASFE representative for Israel, Tel Aviv constituency.
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