The fate of the Lukashenko regime hangs on the war in Ukraine

All this time, analysts have been wondering whether Vladimir Putin will force his “little brother” to commit his troops to the war in Ukraine. Thank goodness this hasn’t happened yet.

Why didn’t the Kremlin try to twist his arm? Perhaps he had to face the facts: Alexander Lukashenko has few well-trained troops (his special forces only number a few thousand men) – they would not make a difference. And sending them to the front could well shake the “stability” of the country.

Lukashenko probably managed to convince Moscow that it was better to use Belarus as a supplier of goods for military and civilian purposes in times of sanctions, and as a country that could organize troop maneuvers and thus force Ukraine to divert part of its armed forces.

It can be perfectly assumed that, in private conversations, Putin was informed by his little brother about the reluctance of Belarusians to go to war against the Ukrainians (which opinion polls show very clearly). If soldiers were actually sent into battle, they might well surrender and cross over to the other side. And the whole country would go up in flames if convoys loaded with corpses started circulating.

Whatever the truth, Lukashenko now has a major asset in his hands: he positions himself as the wise and strong guarantor of a peaceful sky over the heads of the Belarusian people. Official propaganda insists that if the “nationalist activists” had won in 2020, the country would be at war. As independent opinion polls have shown, the argument works among part of the electorate. Especially since most ordinary citizens are cut off from media unfavorable to the authorities.

The co-aggressor trapped between two chairs

At the same time, the Belarusian leader is trying to play both sides. On the one hand, he must demonstrate that he remains Moscow’s faithful ally to receive its carrot. The war allowed the Belarusian economy to occupy new niches in the Russian market and successfully sell products subject to sanctions to its neighbor’s voracious military-industrial complex. This situation is, however, unstable and the turbulence throughout the region is of course a source of tension for Minsk.

On the other hand, (and precisely for this reason) Lukashenko intends to play the role of peacemaker to prepare for a soft landing whatever the outcome of the war. He even slowed down his propagandists a little, who have mistreated Ukraine a little too much in the past. He constantly reminds his subordinates that “sooner or later we will have to restore our relations with the Ukrainians”. Even developing plans to participate in the reconstruction of the neighboring country after the war, which aroused sarcasm from Ukrainian commentators.

It must be said that the war exacerbated the attitude of Ukrainians not only towards Lukashenko and his regime, but also towards Belarusians in general. To some extent, their reputation was saved by the existence of the Kastous-Kalinowski regiment, a unit composed of Belarusian volunteers fighting for Ukraine.

Things are starting to move thanks to the efforts of Belarusian opponents, volunteers, experts and exile media, all seeking to show that the Lukashenko regime and the Belarusian people are not the same. However, kyiv still sees no need to expand cooperation with Belarusian democratic forces or organize a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Belarus Coordination Council Chairwoman Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, and remains skeptical about the potential of Belarusian political exiles.

For Lukashenko, any presence at Ukraine talks is a good thing

Lukashenko clearly hopes to secure a place in possible Ukraine peace talks, a desire he has repeatedly hinted at. He was annoyed by attempts by his political opponents to deprive him of this opportunity, to “remove him from the political arena” by seeking an arrest order from the International Criminal Court in The Hague.

The Belarusian leader is probably stressed by the prospect of the West (mainly the United States) reaching some kind of agreement with Moscow on the situation in the region, a new Yalta-style arrangement while ignoring its interests. What is the point, its leaders would say, of trying to negotiate with a vassal state?

For representatives of Belarusian democratic forces, however, it has become an article of faith to say that the fate of the country lies in Ukraine; If the latter emerges victorious and Russia emerges seriously weakened, a window of opportunity for change will open to us.

Donald Trump’s victory has raised fears that he will force Zelensky to conclude a peace on terms unfavorable for kyiv. Alexander Lukashenko approached the issue in the opposite direction, and began to praise the American president in the hope of being able to negotiate agreements with him.

But it is obvious that the question of Belarus will not be at the center of Trump’s concerns. Overall, the West tends to view Lukashenko as a Kremlin puppet. Why seat a puppet at the peace negotiation table?

Lukashenko’s role in all this depends largely on whether Trump can strike a deal with the Kremlin and on its terms. The chances that representatives of the Belarusian democratic forces will be present during the negotiations on Ukraine are still slim.

The chimera of a march on Minsk

The scenario of an armed revolt aimed at regime change has gained popularity among Lukashenko’s opponents since the suppression of the peaceful uprising in 2020. High hopes have been placed in particular on the Kastous-Kalinowski regiment. The most romantic dreamed of a victorious march of the regiment on Minsk.

At present, such a scenario is not realistic. The most important thing is that Ukraine holds its front line. If it is forced to conclude an armistice on the basis of a military confrontation, the country risks a deep internal political crisis: why has all this blood been shed?

kyiv will have many problems to resolve, without even thinking about freeing Belarus from the dictatorship. As for the Kalinowski regiment, it is a military formation placed under the control of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

Naturally, the unit is and will continue to be used in the interests of Ukraine (although this does not doubt the Belarusian patriotism of its soldiers). We see how kyiv, in the name of these interests, strives not to upset Lukashenko and maintains behind-the-scenes contacts with him.

For the moment, there has been no miraculous unification of democratic forces around any strategy for the liberation of Belarus. The appointment of Vadim Kabanchuk, former deputy commander of the Kalinowski regiment, to Tikhanovskaya’s cabinet did not give any tangible results in this direction.

Of course, if Lukashenko’s authority were to suffer a serious crisis, the armed component of regime change could play a very important, even decisive, role. But for this to happen, a whole series of conditions will have to be met, both inside and outside the country.

For Washington as for the European Union, the sovereignty and democratization of Belarus are not priority issues – and that is an understatement

Either way, the decisive factor is the weakening of Russia. This weakening largely depends on the extent to which the West will support Ukraine.

A number of analysts believe that Washington is not interested in excessively weakening Russia, and even less in its complete collapse. The fear that Russian nuclear weapons will fall into the hands of God knows who remains, as does the hope of using Moscow against China.

Trump’s coming to power increases uncertainty. The pendulum of American politics can swing in any direction.

Belarusians alone face the question of dictatorship

Whatever happens, we must face a harsh reality: for Washington as for the European Union, the sovereignty and democratization of Belarus are not priority issues – and that is an understatement. Of course, Western politicians can express their deep concern; but in reality, many of them have already delivered Belarus to the Empire in their minds, and lowered the Iron Curtain.

Today, Belarus’s future is largely obscured by the Russian-Ukrainian fog of war.

It is important to keep in mind that in any case, “there are no supreme saviors”. It is possible that one day the external conditions will be more or less favorable (not tomorrow, of course). But one way or another, dictatorship is a problem that Belarusians will have to solve themselves.

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